Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its term amid the Israel-Hezbollah war and security disruptions in southern regions and the Bekaa. This delay, combined with the confessional electoral system and fragmented party landscape, has produced dispersed market odds across more than twenty listed contenders. Recent developments, including the formation of a government under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam backed by President Joseph Aoun, ongoing U.S.-mediated talks on Israeli withdrawal and state control over arms, and Hezbollah's diminished military posture, shape positioning without establishing any single dominant bloc. Factors such as alliance realignments, voter turnout in key sects, reconstruction priorities, and progress on disarmament could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アマル運動（アマル） <1%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ） <1%
レバノン軍（LF） <1%
自由愛国運動（FPM） <1%
$677,355 Vol.
$677,355 Vol.
2026/10/31
アマル運動（アマル）
1%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ）
<1%
レバノン軍（LF）
<1%
自由愛国運動（FPM）
<1%
進歩社会党（PSP）
<1%
カタエブ党（カタエブ）
<1%
アルメニア革命連盟（ARF）
<1%
マラダ運動（MM）
<1%
独立運動（IM）
<1%
タカッダム党
<1%
イスラム慈善事業協会（ICPA）
<1%
イスラム集団（IG）
<1%
ユニオン党（UP）
<1%
レバノンのアラブ社会主義バアス党（バアス）
<1%
国民自由党（NLP）
<1%
ラナ社会民主党（ラナ）
<1%
マダ党（Mada）
<1%
カット・アフマル
<1%
人民ナセル主義機構（PNO）
<1%
国民対話党（NDP）
<1%
尊厳運動（DM）
<1%
ワタニ連合（ワタニ）
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
アマル運動（アマル） <1%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ） <1%
レバノン軍（LF） <1%
自由愛国運動（FPM） <1%
$677,355 Vol.
$677,355 Vol.
2026/10/31
アマル運動（アマル）
$63,949 Vol.
1%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ）
$56,390 Vol.
<1%
レバノン軍（LF）
$169,050 Vol.
<1%
自由愛国運動（FPM）
$80,534 Vol.
<1%
進歩社会党（PSP）
$55,015 Vol.
<1%
カタエブ党（カタエブ）
$7,370 Vol.
<1%
アルメニア革命連盟（ARF）
$10,552 Vol.
<1%
マラダ運動（MM）
$8,688 Vol.
<1%
独立運動（IM）
$8,894 Vol.
<1%
タカッダム党
$11,776 Vol.
<1%
イスラム慈善事業協会（ICPA）
$9,181 Vol.
<1%
イスラム集団（IG）
$8,631 Vol.
<1%
ユニオン党（UP）
$7,760 Vol.
<1%
レバノンのアラブ社会主義バアス党（バアス）
$10,710 Vol.
<1%
国民自由党（NLP）
$9,599 Vol.
<1%
ラナ社会民主党（ラナ）
$13,761 Vol.
<1%
マダ党（Mada）
$28,113 Vol.
<1%
カット・アフマル
$14,166 Vol.
<1%
人民ナセル主義機構（PNO）
$9,264 Vol.
<1%
国民対話党（NDP）
$47,398 Vol.
<1%
尊厳運動（DM）
$29,195 Vol.
<1%
ワタニ連合（ワタニ）
$7,539 Vol.
<1%
ReLebanon
$9,819 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its term amid the Israel-Hezbollah war and security disruptions in southern regions and the Bekaa. This delay, combined with the confessional electoral system and fragmented party landscape, has produced dispersed market odds across more than twenty listed contenders. Recent developments, including the formation of a government under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam backed by President Joseph Aoun, ongoing U.S.-mediated talks on Israeli withdrawal and state control over arms, and Hezbollah's diminished military posture, shape positioning without establishing any single dominant bloc. Factors such as alliance realignments, voter turnout in key sects, reconstruction priorities, and progress on disarmament could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
音量
$677,355終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2f5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its term amid the Israel-Hezbollah war and security disruptions in southern regions and the Bekaa. This delay, combined with the confessional electoral system and fragmented party landscape, has produced dispersed market odds across more than twenty listed contenders. Recent developments, including the formation of a government under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam backed by President Joseph Aoun, ongoing U.S.-mediated talks on Israeli withdrawal and state control over arms, and Hezbollah's diminished military posture, shape positioning without establishing any single dominant bloc. Factors such as alliance realignments, voter turnout in key sects, reconstruction priorities, and progress on disarmament could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
音量
$677,355終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2f5e3684c...Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its term amid the Israel-Hezbollah war and security disruptions in southern regions and the Bekaa. This delay, combined with the confessional electoral system and fragmented party landscape, has produced dispersed market odds across more than twenty listed contenders. Recent developments, including the formation of a government under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam backed by President Joseph Aoun, ongoing U.S.-mediated talks on Israeli withdrawal and state control over arms, and Hezbollah's diminished military posture, shape positioning without establishing any single dominant bloc. Factors such as alliance realignments, voter turnout in key sects, reconstruction priorities, and progress on disarmament could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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