Redistricting has shifted California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold into a Democratic-leaning seat, reflected in race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball that classify it as Lean or Tilt Democratic. The March retirement of incumbent Republican Darrell Issa created an open seat, prompting his endorsement of San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who also received support from President Trump. Recent May polling shows Democratic candidates holding collective advantages in the district's voter registration trends and historical voting patterns, while the June 2 top-two primary will determine general-election matchup participants. Traders have priced in these structural and candidate developments as favoring a Democratic outcome in November, though the race remains competitive with potential for shifts based on primary results and fall campaigning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
85%
共和党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,754 Vol.
85%
共和党
$4,139 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has shifted California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold into a Democratic-leaning seat, reflected in race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball that classify it as Lean or Tilt Democratic. The March retirement of incumbent Republican Darrell Issa created an open seat, prompting his endorsement of San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who also received support from President Trump. Recent May polling shows Democratic candidates holding collective advantages in the district's voter registration trends and historical voting patterns, while the June 2 top-two primary will determine general-election matchup participants. Traders have priced in these structural and candidate developments as favoring a Democratic outcome in November, though the race remains competitive with potential for shifts based on primary results and fall campaigning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$9,893終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has shifted California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold into a Democratic-leaning seat, reflected in race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball that classify it as Lean or Tilt Democratic. The March retirement of incumbent Republican Darrell Issa created an open seat, prompting his endorsement of San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who also received support from President Trump. Recent May polling shows Democratic candidates holding collective advantages in the district's voter registration trends and historical voting patterns, while the June 2 top-two primary will determine general-election matchup participants. Traders have priced in these structural and candidate developments as favoring a Democratic outcome in November, though the race remains competitive with potential for shifts based on primary results and fall campaigning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,893終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has shifted California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold into a Democratic-leaning seat, reflected in race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball that classify it as Lean or Tilt Democratic. The March retirement of incumbent Republican Darrell Issa created an open seat, prompting his endorsement of San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who also received support from President Trump. Recent May polling shows Democratic candidates holding collective advantages in the district's voter registration trends and historical voting patterns, while the June 2 top-two primary will determine general-election matchup participants. Traders have priced in these structural and candidate developments as favoring a Democratic outcome in November, though the race remains competitive with potential for shifts based on primary results and fall campaigning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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