**Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District significantly toward Democrats, creating an open-seat contest after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired.** The new map, which includes portions of inland San Diego and Riverside counties plus the Coachella Valley, moved the district from a Republican stronghold (Trump won the prior version by double digits) to a modest Democratic lean. In the June 2 top-two primary, Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond advanced with the largest share of votes, while Democrat and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert secured the second spot ahead of other Democratic contenders. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the November 3 general election as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered electorate, voter registration patterns, and fundraising dynamics. Trader consensus on these structural and candidate factors has produced the current implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$31,817 Vol.
$31,817 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
89%
共和党
11%
$31,817 Vol.
$31,817 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$16,814 Vol.
89%
共和党
$15,003 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District significantly toward Democrats, creating an open-seat contest after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired.** The new map, which includes portions of inland San Diego and Riverside counties plus the Coachella Valley, moved the district from a Republican stronghold (Trump won the prior version by double digits) to a modest Democratic lean. In the June 2 top-two primary, Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond advanced with the largest share of votes, while Democrat and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert secured the second spot ahead of other Democratic contenders. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the November 3 general election as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered electorate, voter registration patterns, and fundraising dynamics. Trader consensus on these structural and candidate factors has produced the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$31,817終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District significantly toward Democrats, creating an open-seat contest after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired.** The new map, which includes portions of inland San Diego and Riverside counties plus the Coachella Valley, moved the district from a Republican stronghold (Trump won the prior version by double digits) to a modest Democratic lean. In the June 2 top-two primary, Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond advanced with the largest share of votes, while Democrat and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert secured the second spot ahead of other Democratic contenders. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the November 3 general election as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered electorate, voter registration patterns, and fundraising dynamics. Trader consensus on these structural and candidate factors has produced the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$31,817終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...**Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District significantly toward Democrats, creating an open-seat contest after longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa retired.** The new map, which includes portions of inland San Diego and Riverside counties plus the Coachella Valley, moved the district from a Republican stronghold (Trump won the prior version by double digits) to a modest Democratic lean. In the June 2 top-two primary, Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond advanced with the largest share of votes, while Democrat and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert secured the second spot ahead of other Democratic contenders. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the November 3 general election as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered electorate, voter registration patterns, and fundraising dynamics. Trader consensus on these structural and candidate factors has produced the current implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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