California's 46th congressional district features a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by recent redistricting, giving incumbent Lou Correa a substantial structural edge heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. Correa advanced comfortably from the June 2 top-two primary, outpacing Republican David Pan and other challengers, which has solidified trader expectations reflected in the current 95% consensus for a Democratic victory. Fundraising patterns, voter registration advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure in the district further anchor these probabilities. A narrow path for Republicans would require unusually high turnout shifts, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment within the remaining campaign window that alters baseline turnout models.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$20,568 Vol.
$20,568 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$20,568 Vol.
$20,568 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$4,636 Vol.
95%
共和党
$15,931 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 46th congressional district features a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by recent redistricting, giving incumbent Lou Correa a substantial structural edge heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. Correa advanced comfortably from the June 2 top-two primary, outpacing Republican David Pan and other challengers, which has solidified trader expectations reflected in the current 95% consensus for a Democratic victory. Fundraising patterns, voter registration advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure in the district further anchor these probabilities. A narrow path for Republicans would require unusually high turnout shifts, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment within the remaining campaign window that alters baseline turnout models.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$20,568終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 46th congressional district features a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by recent redistricting, giving incumbent Lou Correa a substantial structural edge heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. Correa advanced comfortably from the June 2 top-two primary, outpacing Republican David Pan and other challengers, which has solidified trader expectations reflected in the current 95% consensus for a Democratic victory. Fundraising patterns, voter registration advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure in the district further anchor these probabilities. A narrow path for Republicans would require unusually high turnout shifts, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment within the remaining campaign window that alters baseline turnout models.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$20,568終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 46th congressional district features a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by recent redistricting, giving incumbent Lou Correa a substantial structural edge heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. Correa advanced comfortably from the June 2 top-two primary, outpacing Republican David Pan and other challengers, which has solidified trader expectations reflected in the current 95% consensus for a Democratic victory. Fundraising patterns, voter registration advantages, and limited Republican infrastructure in the district further anchor these probabilities. A narrow path for Republicans would require unusually high turnout shifts, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment within the remaining campaign window that alters baseline turnout models.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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