Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of solid or safe from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball following recent redistricting. Correa's substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2.4 million cash on hand, positions him strongly for the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challengers Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato, as well as Republican David Pan. This setup underpins traders' 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. A primary upset advancing an untested Republican or an unforeseen late development affecting Democratic turnout represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$11,084 Vol.
$11,084 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$11,084 Vol.
$11,084 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,449 Vol.
93%
共和党
$8,635 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of solid or safe from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball following recent redistricting. Correa's substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2.4 million cash on hand, positions him strongly for the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challengers Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato, as well as Republican David Pan. This setup underpins traders' 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. A primary upset advancing an untested Republican or an unforeseen late development affecting Democratic turnout represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$11,084終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of solid or safe from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball following recent redistricting. Correa's substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2.4 million cash on hand, positions him strongly for the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challengers Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato, as well as Republican David Pan. This setup underpins traders' 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. A primary upset advancing an untested Republican or an unforeseen late development affecting Democratic turnout represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$11,084終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa holds a commanding position in California's 46th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of solid or safe from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball following recent redistricting. Correa's substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2.4 million cash on hand, positions him strongly for the June 2 top-two primary against Democratic challengers Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato, as well as Republican David Pan. This setup underpins traders' 92.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. A primary upset advancing an untested Republican or an unforeseen late development affecting Democratic turnout represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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