The strong El Niño now intensifying across the tropical Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +3.0 °C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +4 °C by late 2026—represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly in the 1.35–1.39 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.27 °C per decade, pushing monthly values well above the 1850–1900 baseline as tracked by ERA5 and other reanalyses. Recent observations confirm September 2026 already tracking near or above 1.6 °C in early estimates, consistent with the lag between Pacific heating and global response, while model spreads highlight remaining uncertainty from atmospheric variability and exact peak timing. Official NOAA and ECMWF guidance, updated through mid-September, continues to inform market consensus ahead of final monthly data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 34%
1.30–1.34ºC 17%
<1.30ºC 6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
6%
1.30–1.34ºC
17%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
34%
1.45–1.49ºC
9%
>1.49ºC
5%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 34%
1.30–1.34ºC 17%
<1.30ºC 6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$222 Vol.
6%
1.30–1.34ºC
$1,563 Vol.
17%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
34%
1.45–1.49ºC
$124 Vol.
9%
>1.49ºC
$363 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The strong El Niño now intensifying across the tropical Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +3.0 °C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +4 °C by late 2026—represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly in the 1.35–1.39 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.27 °C per decade, pushing monthly values well above the 1850–1900 baseline as tracked by ERA5 and other reanalyses. Recent observations confirm September 2026 already tracking near or above 1.6 °C in early estimates, consistent with the lag between Pacific heating and global response, while model spreads highlight remaining uncertainty from atmospheric variability and exact peak timing. Official NOAA and ECMWF guidance, updated through mid-September, continues to inform market consensus ahead of final monthly data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$2,072End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The strong El Niño now intensifying across the tropical Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +3.0 °C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +4 °C by late 2026—represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly in the 1.35–1.39 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.27 °C per decade, pushing monthly values well above the 1850–1900 baseline as tracked by ERA5 and other reanalyses. Recent observations confirm September 2026 already tracking near or above 1.6 °C in early estimates, consistent with the lag between Pacific heating and global response, while model spreads highlight remaining uncertainty from atmospheric variability and exact peak timing. Official NOAA and ECMWF guidance, updated through mid-September, continues to inform market consensus ahead of final monthly data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$2,072End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...The strong El Niño now intensifying across the tropical Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +3.0 °C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +4 °C by late 2026—represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly in the 1.35–1.39 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.27 °C per decade, pushing monthly values well above the 1850–1900 baseline as tracked by ERA5 and other reanalyses. Recent observations confirm September 2026 already tracking near or above 1.6 °C in early estimates, consistent with the lag between Pacific heating and global response, while model spreads highlight remaining uncertainty from atmospheric variability and exact peak timing. Official NOAA and ECMWF guidance, updated through mid-September, continues to inform market consensus ahead of final monthly data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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