A rapidly intensifying very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and subsurface heat content surging, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for the 1.35–1.44°C range. This event, already exceeding prior super El Niño benchmarks in speed and projected peak near +3.5–4.0°C, releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a lag that aligns with September’s timing. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows record August 2026 warmth at +0.85°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, while September projections cluster near +1.62°C (range 1.55–1.68°C) in ERA5 blends, consistent with historical El Niño amplification atop the elevated baseline. Model consensus and the absence of major volcanic cooling reinforce elevated but not extreme outcomes for the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.35–1.39ºC 51%
1.40–1.44ºC 38%
1.30–1.34ºC 12%
>1.49ºC 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
5%
1.30–1.34ºC
12%
1.35–1.39ºC
51%
1.40–1.44ºC
38%
1.45–1.49ºC
9%
>1.49ºC
5%
1.35–1.39ºC 51%
1.40–1.44ºC 38%
1.30–1.34ºC 12%
>1.49ºC 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$222 Vol.
5%
1.30–1.34ºC
$2,055 Vol.
12%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
51%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.45–1.49ºC
$124 Vol.
9%
>1.49ºC
$363 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and subsurface heat content surging, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for the 1.35–1.44°C range. This event, already exceeding prior super El Niño benchmarks in speed and projected peak near +3.5–4.0°C, releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a lag that aligns with September’s timing. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows record August 2026 warmth at +0.85°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, while September projections cluster near +1.62°C (range 1.55–1.68°C) in ERA5 blends, consistent with historical El Niño amplification atop the elevated baseline. Model consensus and the absence of major volcanic cooling reinforce elevated but not extreme outcomes for the month.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$2,272End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and subsurface heat content surging, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for the 1.35–1.44°C range. This event, already exceeding prior super El Niño benchmarks in speed and projected peak near +3.5–4.0°C, releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a lag that aligns with September’s timing. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows record August 2026 warmth at +0.85°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, while September projections cluster near +1.62°C (range 1.55–1.68°C) in ERA5 blends, consistent with historical El Niño amplification atop the elevated baseline. Model consensus and the absence of major volcanic cooling reinforce elevated but not extreme outcomes for the month.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$2,272End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and subsurface heat content surging, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for the 1.35–1.44°C range. This event, already exceeding prior super El Niño benchmarks in speed and projected peak near +3.5–4.0°C, releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere with a lag that aligns with September’s timing. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows record August 2026 warmth at +0.85°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, while September projections cluster near +1.62°C (range 1.55–1.68°C) in ERA5 blends, consistent with historical El Niño amplification atop the elevated baseline. Model consensus and the absence of major volcanic cooling reinforce elevated but not extreme outcomes for the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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