Market icon

"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Market icon

"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Apr 6

Apr 6

Apr 13

Apr 13

Apr 6

Apr 6

Apr 13

Apr 13

70-80m 53%

<70m 32%

80-90m 16%

>90m 1.4%

Polymarket

$11,187 Vol.

70-80m 53%

<70m 32%

80-90m 16%

>90m 1.4%

Polymarket

$11,187 Vol.

<70m

$3,677 Vol.

32%

70-80m

$3,678 Vol.

53%

80-90m

$1,774 Vol.

16%

>90m

$2,058 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Following a record-shattering domestic debut of $131.7 million over the three-day Easter weekend and $190.8 million in five days—fueled by massive Nintendo fan turnout, Illumination's vibrant animation, and family audiences—the Super Mario Galaxy Movie has shown solid midweek holds, adding roughly $14 million Tuesday through Thursday to reach $222 million domestic. An A- CinemaScore underscores strong word-of-mouth despite mixed critic reviews, positioning trader consensus at 52.5% implied probability for a $70-80 million second weekend, aligning with upper-end forecasts from Deadline ($60-70 million) and Box Office Theory ($67-75 million). A steeper drop could push under $70 million (32%), while limited competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary supports upside potential; Friday tracking will clarify momentum before the April 11-13 frame.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$11,187
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Following a record-shattering domestic debut of $131.7 million over the three-day Easter weekend and $190.8 million in five days—fueled by massive Nintendo fan turnout, Illumination's vibrant animation, and family audiences—the Super Mario Galaxy Movie has shown solid midweek holds, adding roughly $14 million Tuesday through Thursday to reach $222 million domestic. An A- CinemaScore underscores strong word-of-mouth despite mixed critic reviews, positioning trader consensus at 52.5% implied probability for a $70-80 million second weekend, aligning with upper-end forecasts from Deadline ($60-70 million) and Box Office Theory ($67-75 million). A steeper drop could push under $70 million (32%), while limited competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary supports upside potential; Friday tracking will clarify momentum before the April 11-13 frame.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$11,187
End Date
Apr 13, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:58 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 10 - April 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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Frequently Asked Questions

""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "70-80m" at 53%, followed by "<70m" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office" has generated $11.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office" is "70-80m" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<70m" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for ""The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.