Toy Story 5’s domestic opening weekend tracking centers on a tight 158-184 million range as the June 19 release approaches, driven by robust presales, IMAX and premium format availability, and a wide 4,425-theater footprint. The film benefits from a summer marketplace short on major family tentpoles since Super Mario Galaxy, plus holiday timing around Juneteenth and Father’s Day that historically lifts walk-ups. Early critic reactions have been largely positive with praise for its timely tech cautionary theme, supporting franchise momentum beyond Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million benchmark. Traders weigh whether last-minute family demand and 3D sales can push past the midpoint versus Disney’s typical presale-heavy patterns that sometimes limit upside surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office
"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office
158-171m 100.0%
<145m <1%
145-158m <1%
171-184m <1%
$686,369 Vol.
$686,369 Vol.
Jun 22, 2026
<145m
No
145-158m
No
158-171m
Yes
171-184m
No
>184m
No
158-171m 100.0%
<145m <1%
145-158m <1%
171-184m <1%
$686,369 Vol.
$686,369 Vol.
Jun 22, 2026
<145m
$72,670 Vol.
No
145-158m
$193,508 Vol.
No
158-171m
$187,264 Vol.
Yes
171-184m
$137,400 Vol.
No
>184m
$95,526 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s domestic opening weekend tracking centers on a tight 158-184 million range as the June 19 release approaches, driven by robust presales, IMAX and premium format availability, and a wide 4,425-theater footprint. The film benefits from a summer marketplace short on major family tentpoles since Super Mario Galaxy, plus holiday timing around Juneteenth and Father’s Day that historically lifts walk-ups. Early critic reactions have been largely positive with praise for its timely tech cautionary theme, supporting franchise momentum beyond Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million benchmark. Traders weigh whether last-minute family demand and 3D sales can push past the midpoint versus Disney’s typical presale-heavy patterns that sometimes limit upside surprises.
This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Volume
$686,369End Date
Jun 22, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s domestic opening weekend tracking centers on a tight 158-184 million range as the June 19 release approaches, driven by robust presales, IMAX and premium format availability, and a wide 4,425-theater footprint. The film benefits from a summer marketplace short on major family tentpoles since Super Mario Galaxy, plus holiday timing around Juneteenth and Father’s Day that historically lifts walk-ups. Early critic reactions have been largely positive with praise for its timely tech cautionary theme, supporting franchise momentum beyond Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million benchmark. Traders weigh whether last-minute family demand and 3D sales can push past the midpoint versus Disney’s typical presale-heavy patterns that sometimes limit upside surprises.
This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$686,369End Date
Jun 22, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Toy Story 5’s domestic opening weekend tracking centers on a tight 158-184 million range as the June 19 release approaches, driven by robust presales, IMAX and premium format availability, and a wide 4,425-theater footprint. The film benefits from a summer marketplace short on major family tentpoles since Super Mario Galaxy, plus holiday timing around Juneteenth and Father’s Day that historically lifts walk-ups. Early critic reactions have been largely positive with praise for its timely tech cautionary theme, supporting franchise momentum beyond Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million benchmark. Traders weigh whether last-minute family demand and 3D sales can push past the midpoint versus Disney’s typical presale-heavy patterns that sometimes limit upside surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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