The reported turnout in the May 26 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn fell squarely in the 1.2–1.5 million range, with more than 1.3 million total ballots cast and roughly 1.39 million votes tallied statewide. This outcome reflects the typical sharp drop in participation between a primary and runoff, compounded by the high-profile but localized contest drawing about 36 percent fewer Republican voters than the March primary. Trader consensus has consolidated around these official early and final counts from state sources because they leave little room for deviation once certified. Late adjustments to provisional or overseas ballots, or disputes during final canvassing, remain the only plausible paths that could shift the total outside the leading bracket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTurnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
1.2–1.5M 99.8%
2.4–2.7M <1%
<0.6M <1%
0.6–0.9M <1%
$169,060 Vol.
$169,060 Vol.
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
No
0.6–0.9M
No
0.9–1.2M
No
1.2–1.5M
Yes
1.5–1.8M
No
1.8–2.1M
No
2.1–2.4M
No
2.4–2.7M
No
2.7M+
No
1.2–1.5M 99.8%
2.4–2.7M <1%
<0.6M <1%
0.6–0.9M <1%
$169,060 Vol.
$169,060 Vol.
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
$2,626 Vol.
No
0.6–0.9M
$55,400 Vol.
No
0.9–1.2M
$5,927 Vol.
No
1.2–1.5M
$47,737 Vol.
Yes
1.5–1.8M
$8,622 Vol.
No
1.8–2.1M
$9,696 Vol.
No
2.1–2.4M
$11,181 Vol.
No
2.4–2.7M
$11,700 Vol.
No
2.7M+
$16,171 Vol.
No
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The reported turnout in the May 26 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn fell squarely in the 1.2–1.5 million range, with more than 1.3 million total ballots cast and roughly 1.39 million votes tallied statewide. This outcome reflects the typical sharp drop in participation between a primary and runoff, compounded by the high-profile but localized contest drawing about 36 percent fewer Republican voters than the March primary. Trader consensus has consolidated around these official early and final counts from state sources because they leave little room for deviation once certified. Late adjustments to provisional or overseas ballots, or disputes during final canvassing, remain the only plausible paths that could shift the total outside the leading bracket.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volume
$169,060End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The reported turnout in the May 26 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn fell squarely in the 1.2–1.5 million range, with more than 1.3 million total ballots cast and roughly 1.39 million votes tallied statewide. This outcome reflects the typical sharp drop in participation between a primary and runoff, compounded by the high-profile but localized contest drawing about 36 percent fewer Republican voters than the March primary. Trader consensus has consolidated around these official early and final counts from state sources because they leave little room for deviation once certified. Late adjustments to provisional or overseas ballots, or disputes during final canvassing, remain the only plausible paths that could shift the total outside the leading bracket.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$169,060End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The reported turnout in the May 26 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn fell squarely in the 1.2–1.5 million range, with more than 1.3 million total ballots cast and roughly 1.39 million votes tallied statewide. This outcome reflects the typical sharp drop in participation between a primary and runoff, compounded by the high-profile but localized contest drawing about 36 percent fewer Republican voters than the March primary. Trader consensus has consolidated around these official early and final counts from state sources because they leave little room for deviation once certified. Late adjustments to provisional or overseas ballots, or disputes during final canvassing, remain the only plausible paths that could shift the total outside the leading bracket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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