Multiple small U.S. bank failures in 2026, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank in August, have reinforced trader expectations of additional resolutions before year-end. These closures stemmed primarily from impaired capital positions driven by concentrated commercial and industrial loan losses and commercial real estate exposures, with individual institutions showing elevated net charge-off ratios exceeding 20 percent in some cases. Broader sector resilience persists, as average common equity tier 1 ratios remain above 14 percent, yet regional banks continue to exhibit sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks amid a labor market with unemployment averaging 4.3 percent and a 25 percent recession probability priced in by forecasters. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming Federal Reserve communications, inflation releases, and any acceleration in loan delinquencies that could pressure weaker balance sheets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated74% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
74% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Multiple small U.S. bank failures in 2026, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank in August, have reinforced trader expectations of additional resolutions before year-end. These closures stemmed primarily from impaired capital positions driven by concentrated commercial and industrial loan losses and commercial real estate exposures, with individual institutions showing elevated net charge-off ratios exceeding 20 percent in some cases. Broader sector resilience persists, as average common equity tier 1 ratios remain above 14 percent, yet regional banks continue to exhibit sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks amid a labor market with unemployment averaging 4.3 percent and a 25 percent recession probability priced in by forecasters. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming Federal Reserve communications, inflation releases, and any acceleration in loan delinquencies that could pressure weaker balance sheets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$79End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Multiple small U.S. bank failures in 2026, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank in August, have reinforced trader expectations of additional resolutions before year-end. These closures stemmed primarily from impaired capital positions driven by concentrated commercial and industrial loan losses and commercial real estate exposures, with individual institutions showing elevated net charge-off ratios exceeding 20 percent in some cases. Broader sector resilience persists, as average common equity tier 1 ratios remain above 14 percent, yet regional banks continue to exhibit sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks amid a labor market with unemployment averaging 4.3 percent and a 25 percent recession probability priced in by forecasters. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming Federal Reserve communications, inflation releases, and any acceleration in loan delinquencies that could pressure weaker balance sheets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$79End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Multiple small U.S. bank failures in 2026, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank in August, have reinforced trader expectations of additional resolutions before year-end. These closures stemmed primarily from impaired capital positions driven by concentrated commercial and industrial loan losses and commercial real estate exposures, with individual institutions showing elevated net charge-off ratios exceeding 20 percent in some cases. Broader sector resilience persists, as average common equity tier 1 ratios remain above 14 percent, yet regional banks continue to exhibit sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks amid a labor market with unemployment averaging 4.3 percent and a 25 percent recession probability priced in by forecasters. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming Federal Reserve communications, inflation releases, and any acceleration in loan delinquencies that could pressure weaker balance sheets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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