Recent U.S.-China trade talks have centered on extending the Busan truce through January 2027 and pursuing reciprocal tariff cuts on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods each way, following the September 24 Trump-Xi summit and preparatory meetings between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials. These developments, building on earlier Section 301 actions and a Supreme Court ruling that shifted authorities, have kept effective rates near or below 20-36% amid commitments on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and forced-labor compliance. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date falling inside the extended truce window and further negotiations likely, trader consensus clusters tightly in the 5-35% bands as modest de-escalation remains the baseline while new Section 301 findings or stalled talks could still push rates higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5–15% 30%
25–35% 22%
<5% 20%
15–25% 18%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<5%
20%
5–15%
30%
15–25%
18%
25–35%
22%
35%+
1%
5–15% 30%
25–35% 22%
<5% 20%
15–25% 18%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<5%
$182 Vol.
20%
5–15%
$90 Vol.
30%
15–25%
$20 Vol.
18%
25–35%
$20 Vol.
22%
35%+
$474 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade talks have centered on extending the Busan truce through January 2027 and pursuing reciprocal tariff cuts on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods each way, following the September 24 Trump-Xi summit and preparatory meetings between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials. These developments, building on earlier Section 301 actions and a Supreme Court ruling that shifted authorities, have kept effective rates near or below 20-36% amid commitments on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and forced-labor compliance. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date falling inside the extended truce window and further negotiations likely, trader consensus clusters tightly in the 5-35% bands as modest de-escalation remains the baseline while new Section 301 findings or stalled talks could still push rates higher.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$787End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade talks have centered on extending the Busan truce through January 2027 and pursuing reciprocal tariff cuts on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods each way, following the September 24 Trump-Xi summit and preparatory meetings between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials. These developments, building on earlier Section 301 actions and a Supreme Court ruling that shifted authorities, have kept effective rates near or below 20-36% amid commitments on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and forced-labor compliance. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date falling inside the extended truce window and further negotiations likely, trader consensus clusters tightly in the 5-35% bands as modest de-escalation remains the baseline while new Section 301 findings or stalled talks could still push rates higher.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$787End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent U.S.-China trade talks have centered on extending the Busan truce through January 2027 and pursuing reciprocal tariff cuts on roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods each way, following the September 24 Trump-Xi summit and preparatory meetings between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials. These developments, building on earlier Section 301 actions and a Supreme Court ruling that shifted authorities, have kept effective rates near or below 20-36% amid commitments on agricultural purchases, critical minerals, and forced-labor compliance. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date falling inside the extended truce window and further negotiations likely, trader consensus clusters tightly in the 5-35% bands as modest de-escalation remains the baseline while new Section 301 findings or stalled talks could still push rates higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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