**Zohran Mamdani, who took office as New York City mayor in January 2026 after winning the 2025 election, campaigned on a phased “$30 by 2030” minimum-wage plan rather than an immediate jump.** Legislation introduced in the City Council in March 2026 sets incremental steps—$20 per hour for large employers in 2027, rising to $23, $26, and $30 only in 2030—with a slower track for smaller businesses. The city currently lacks independent authority to exceed the state-mandated floor ($17 in NYC as of 2026), so any local increase requires Albany approval that has not materialized. No executive orders, accelerated council votes, or state-level breakthroughs have shifted the timeline forward. Mamdani’s administration has prioritized other affordability measures such as expanded child-care subsidies and affordable-housing financing, while maintaining the original multi-year wage schedule. Traders therefore assign roughly 93–94% probability to “No,” reflecting both the explicit 2030 target and the structural and legislative barriers that make a pre-2027 enactment to $30 highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$22,915 Vol.
$22,915 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$22,915 Vol.
$22,915 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Zohran Mamdani, who took office as New York City mayor in January 2026 after winning the 2025 election, campaigned on a phased “$30 by 2030” minimum-wage plan rather than an immediate jump.** Legislation introduced in the City Council in March 2026 sets incremental steps—$20 per hour for large employers in 2027, rising to $23, $26, and $30 only in 2030—with a slower track for smaller businesses. The city currently lacks independent authority to exceed the state-mandated floor ($17 in NYC as of 2026), so any local increase requires Albany approval that has not materialized.
No executive orders, accelerated council votes, or state-level breakthroughs have shifted the timeline forward. Mamdani’s administration has prioritized other affordability measures such as expanded child-care subsidies and affordable-housing financing, while maintaining the original multi-year wage schedule. Traders therefore assign roughly 93–94% probability to “No,” reflecting both the explicit 2030 target and the structural and legislative barriers that make a pre-2027 enactment to $30 highly improbable under current conditions.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Volume
$22,915End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Zohran Mamdani, who took office as New York City mayor in January 2026 after winning the 2025 election, campaigned on a phased “$30 by 2030” minimum-wage plan rather than an immediate jump.** Legislation introduced in the City Council in March 2026 sets incremental steps—$20 per hour for large employers in 2027, rising to $23, $26, and $30 only in 2030—with a slower track for smaller businesses. The city currently lacks independent authority to exceed the state-mandated floor ($17 in NYC as of 2026), so any local increase requires Albany approval that has not materialized.
No executive orders, accelerated council votes, or state-level breakthroughs have shifted the timeline forward. Mamdani’s administration has prioritized other affordability measures such as expanded child-care subsidies and affordable-housing financing, while maintaining the original multi-year wage schedule. Traders therefore assign roughly 93–94% probability to “No,” reflecting both the explicit 2030 target and the structural and legislative barriers that make a pre-2027 enactment to $30 highly improbable under current conditions.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,915End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Zohran Mamdani, who took office as New York City mayor in January 2026 after winning the 2025 election, campaigned on a phased “$30 by 2030” minimum-wage plan rather than an immediate jump.** Legislation introduced in the City Council in March 2026 sets incremental steps—$20 per hour for large employers in 2027, rising to $23, $26, and $30 only in 2030—with a slower track for smaller businesses. The city currently lacks independent authority to exceed the state-mandated floor ($17 in NYC as of 2026), so any local increase requires Albany approval that has not materialized. No executive orders, accelerated council votes, or state-level breakthroughs have shifted the timeline forward. Mamdani’s administration has prioritized other affordability measures such as expanded child-care subsidies and affordable-housing financing, while maintaining the original multi-year wage schedule. Traders therefore assign roughly 93–94% probability to “No,” reflecting both the explicit 2030 target and the structural and legislative barriers that make a pre-2027 enactment to $30 highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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