Robert Aderholt, the long-serving Republican incumbent since 1997, secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Amanda Pusczek in the November 3 general election for Alabama's 4th congressional district. The rural north-central Alabama seat has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles, reflecting its strong partisan lean and historical voting patterns that favor GOP candidates. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Republican victory due to incumbency advantages, limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, and the absence of notable recent developments such as scandals, competitive polling shifts, or external events that could alter the race. A commanding lead would require an extraordinary late-cycle disruption, including a major personal or legal issue for Aderholt or an unprecedented national political realignment, neither of which appears imminent based on available information.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAL-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
AL-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$38,021 Vol.
$38,021 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
97%
Parti démocrate
<1%
$38,021 Vol.
$38,021 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$19,857 Vol.
97%
Parti démocrate
$18,164 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Robert Aderholt, the long-serving Republican incumbent since 1997, secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Amanda Pusczek in the November 3 general election for Alabama's 4th congressional district. The rural north-central Alabama seat has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles, reflecting its strong partisan lean and historical voting patterns that favor GOP candidates. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Republican victory due to incumbency advantages, limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, and the absence of notable recent developments such as scandals, competitive polling shifts, or external events that could alter the race. A commanding lead would require an extraordinary late-cycle disruption, including a major personal or legal issue for Aderholt or an unprecedented national political realignment, neither of which appears imminent based on available information.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$38,021Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Robert Aderholt, the long-serving Republican incumbent since 1997, secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Amanda Pusczek in the November 3 general election for Alabama's 4th congressional district. The rural north-central Alabama seat has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles, reflecting its strong partisan lean and historical voting patterns that favor GOP candidates. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Republican victory due to incumbency advantages, limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, and the absence of notable recent developments such as scandals, competitive polling shifts, or external events that could alter the race. A commanding lead would require an extraordinary late-cycle disruption, including a major personal or legal issue for Aderholt or an unprecedented national political realignment, neither of which appears imminent based on available information.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,021Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Robert Aderholt, the long-serving Republican incumbent since 1997, secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Amanda Pusczek in the November 3 general election for Alabama's 4th congressional district. The rural north-central Alabama seat has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles, reflecting its strong partisan lean and historical voting patterns that favor GOP candidates. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Republican victory due to incumbency advantages, limited Democratic infrastructure in the district, and the absence of notable recent developments such as scandals, competitive polling shifts, or external events that could alter the race. A commanding lead would require an extraordinary late-cycle disruption, including a major personal or legal issue for Aderholt or an unprecedented national political realignment, neither of which appears imminent based on available information.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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