Market icon

Un autre séisme de 7,0 ou plus de... ?

Market icon

Un autre séisme de 7,0 ou plus de... ?

May 31

May 31

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,893 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$3,116 Vol.

18%

30 avril

$2,696 Vol.

81%

31 mai

$2,081 Vol.

89%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects statistical baselines from global seismicity data, with no major magnitude 7.0+ quakes reported worldwide in the past 30 days—the last being a 7.1 off the Mariana Islands on August 12 amid typical Pacific Ring of Fire activity. USGS monitoring shows ongoing moderate tremors in high-risk zones like the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia, but experts emphasize earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable, defying short-term forecasts despite historical averages of 12–20 such events annually. Recent developments include enhanced early-warning systems in Japan post-Noto quake, yet no shifts in tectonic pressures signal an imminent event. Bettors eye upcoming seismic reports and regional alerts as key catalysts, underscoring the market's reliance on probabilistic modeling over deterministic predictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$7,893
Date de fin
May 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects statistical baselines from global seismicity data, with no major magnitude 7.0+ quakes reported worldwide in the past 30 days—the last being a 7.1 off the Mariana Islands on August 12 amid typical Pacific Ring of Fire activity. USGS monitoring shows ongoing moderate tremors in high-risk zones like the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia, but experts emphasize earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable, defying short-term forecasts despite historical averages of 12–20 such events annually. Recent developments include enhanced early-warning systems in Japan post-Noto quake, yet no shifts in tectonic pressures signal an imminent event. Bettors eye upcoming seismic reports and regional alerts as key catalysts, underscoring the market's reliance on probabilistic modeling over deterministic predictions.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects statistical baselines from global seismicity data, with no major magnitude 7.0+ quakes reported worldwide in the past 30 days—the last being a 7.1 off the Mariana Islands on August 12 amid typical Pacific Ring of Fire activity. USGS monitoring shows ongoing moderate tremors in high-risk zones like the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia, but experts emphasize earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable, defying short-term forecasts despite historical averages of 12–20 such events annually. Recent developments include enhanced early-warning systems in Japan post-Noto quake, yet no shifts in tectonic pressures signal an imminent event. Bettors eye upcoming seismic reports and regional alerts as key catalysts, underscoring the market's reliance on probabilistic modeling over deterministic predictions.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Un autre séisme de 7,0 ou plus de... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 3 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 mai » à 89%, suivi de « 30 avril » à 81%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 89¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 89% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Un autre séisme de 7,0 ou plus de... ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 26, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Un autre séisme de 7,0 ou plus de... ? », parcourez les 3 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Un autre séisme de 7,0 ou plus de... ? » est « 31 mai » à 89%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 89% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 30 avril » à 81%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Un autre séisme de 7,0 ou plus de... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.