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Politique·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

Market icon
Politique·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

NOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket
Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by April 30, 2026? icon

April 30

$0 Vol.

47%

Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026? icon

May 15

$0 Vol.

46%

Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 31, 2026? icon

May 31

$0 Vol.

48%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's defection from the Conservatives to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals on April 8, 2026—the latest in a series of at least four such floor-crossings since late 2025—traders see a moderate chance (42% by April 30, 46% by May 31) of another sitting House of Commons MP switching parliamentary caucuses from one party to another. This trader consensus reflects ongoing reports of Liberal recruitment overtures amid their narrow majority solidified by recent byelection sweeps, offset by strong public backlash including petition e-7025 surpassing 100,000 signatures for mandatory by-elections on floor-crossers. No further defections have occurred in the past week, with Conservatives pressing for accountability reforms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu's defection from the Conservatives to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals on April 8, 2026—the latest in a series of at least four such floor-crossings since late 2025—traders see a moderate chance (42% by April 30, 46% by May 31) of another sitting House of Commons MP switching parliamentary caucuses from one party to another. This trader consensus reflects ongoing reports of Liberal recruitment overtures amid their narrow majority solidified by recent byelection sweeps, offset by strong public backlash including petition e-7025 surpassing 100,000 signatures for mandatory by-elections on floor-crossers. No further defections have occurred in the past week, with Conservatives pressing for accountability reforms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 3 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « May 31 » à 48%, suivi de « April 30 » à 47%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 48¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 48% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Apr 16, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...? », parcourez les 3 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...? » est « May 31 » à 48%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 48% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « April 30 » à 47%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.