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Géopolitique·Liban

Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé avant le 30 avril ?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Liban

Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé avant le 30 avril ?

Oui

11% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Oui

11% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Tehrani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Buenos Aires designating the IRGC a terrorist organization—marks the most recent such action, following a March wave by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon amid heightened regional tensions. With no further verified diplomatic expulsions or escalatory incidents like missile strikes or intelligence revelations in the six days since, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" additional action by April 30, viewing the anti-Iran momentum as plateaued. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking military developments, sanctions, or alliance pressures, though current de-escalation signals bolster stability expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,604
Date de fin
30 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Tehrani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Buenos Aires designating the IRGC a terrorist organization—marks the most recent such action, following a March wave by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon amid heightened regional tensions. With no further verified diplomatic expulsions or escalatory incidents like missile strikes or intelligence revelations in the six days since, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" additional action by April 30, viewing the anti-Iran momentum as plateaued. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking military developments, sanctions, or alliance pressures, though current de-escalation signals bolster stability expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,604
Date de fin
30 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé avant le 30 avril ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé d'ici le 30 avril ? » à 11%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 11¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 11% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé avant le 30 avril ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Apr 6, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé avant le 30 avril ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé avant le 30 avril ? » est « Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé d'ici le 30 avril ? » à 11%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 11% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé avant le 30 avril ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.