Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 with over 70 percent of the vote, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district. The majority-Latino, heavily urban Phoenix-area seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent because no viable Republican challenger has emerged to contest the November 2026 general election, leaving only a No Labels candidate on the ballot. Primary drivers include the district’s demographic profile, Ansari’s established incumbency, and the absence of any notable polling shifts or campaign developments that would narrow the margin. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-cycle event such as a significant personal or ethical issue affecting the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAZ-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
AZ-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$33,982 Vol.
$33,982 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
2%
$33,982 Vol.
$33,982 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$15,266 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$18,716 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 with over 70 percent of the vote, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district. The majority-Latino, heavily urban Phoenix-area seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent because no viable Republican challenger has emerged to contest the November 2026 general election, leaving only a No Labels candidate on the ballot. Primary drivers include the district’s demographic profile, Ansari’s established incumbency, and the absence of any notable polling shifts or campaign developments that would narrow the margin. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-cycle event such as a significant personal or ethical issue affecting the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$33,982Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 with over 70 percent of the vote, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district. The majority-Latino, heavily urban Phoenix-area seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent because no viable Republican challenger has emerged to contest the November 2026 general election, leaving only a No Labels candidate on the ballot. Primary drivers include the district’s demographic profile, Ansari’s established incumbency, and the absence of any notable polling shifts or campaign developments that would narrow the margin. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-cycle event such as a significant personal or ethical issue affecting the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,982Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 with over 70 percent of the vote, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district. The majority-Latino, heavily urban Phoenix-area seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent because no viable Republican challenger has emerged to contest the November 2026 general election, leaving only a No Labels candidate on the ballot. Primary drivers include the district’s demographic profile, Ansari’s established incumbency, and the absence of any notable polling shifts or campaign developments that would narrow the margin. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-cycle event such as a significant personal or ethical issue affecting the incumbent or an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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