Traders assign a 99.4% probability that Bill Gates will not face criminal charges by June 30 due to the absence of any active federal or state investigations, indictments, or grand jury proceedings. Public records and official statements show only longstanding civil litigation and debunked online rumors, with recent congressional testimony on Epstein associations producing no new criminal referrals. Legal processes for formal charges require documented evidence review and procedural steps that have not materialized in verifiable reporting. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unanticipated announcement from prosecutors or a sudden escalation from existing civil matters, though both remain improbable given the short timeline and lack of supporting developments.