Recent polls show the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding double-digit national leads over the Conservatives, often in the 44-47% range versus 27-36%, translating into seat projections favoring a large Liberal majority with gains primarily at Conservative expense. This positioning stems from the 2025 federal election outcome, where Liberals secured 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144 before consolidating further through by-elections and floor crossings into 2026. Consistent survey trends across multiple firms, including recent August releases, reflect sustained voter support for the governing party on economic and stability metrics amid limited Conservative momentum. With implied probabilities near 95% against a Conservative seat flip, traders reflect this entrenched polling gap and absence of major disruptive events. Realistic shifts could still arise from sharp economic deterioration, policy controversies ahead of the August 31 by-elections, or changes in voter priorities on affordability and housing that erode the current Liberal advantage before any future vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour5% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
5% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polls show the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding double-digit national leads over the Conservatives, often in the 44-47% range versus 27-36%, translating into seat projections favoring a large Liberal majority with gains primarily at Conservative expense. This positioning stems from the 2025 federal election outcome, where Liberals secured 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144 before consolidating further through by-elections and floor crossings into 2026. Consistent survey trends across multiple firms, including recent August releases, reflect sustained voter support for the governing party on economic and stability metrics amid limited Conservative momentum.
With implied probabilities near 95% against a Conservative seat flip, traders reflect this entrenched polling gap and absence of major disruptive events. Realistic shifts could still arise from sharp economic deterioration, policy controversies ahead of the August 31 by-elections, or changes in voter priorities on affordability and housing that erode the current Liberal advantage before any future vote.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$8,090Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent polls show the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding double-digit national leads over the Conservatives, often in the 44-47% range versus 27-36%, translating into seat projections favoring a large Liberal majority with gains primarily at Conservative expense. This positioning stems from the 2025 federal election outcome, where Liberals secured 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144 before consolidating further through by-elections and floor crossings into 2026. Consistent survey trends across multiple firms, including recent August releases, reflect sustained voter support for the governing party on economic and stability metrics amid limited Conservative momentum.
With implied probabilities near 95% against a Conservative seat flip, traders reflect this entrenched polling gap and absence of major disruptive events. Realistic shifts could still arise from sharp economic deterioration, policy controversies ahead of the August 31 by-elections, or changes in voter priorities on affordability and housing that erode the current Liberal advantage before any future vote.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$8,090Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls show the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding double-digit national leads over the Conservatives, often in the 44-47% range versus 27-36%, translating into seat projections favoring a large Liberal majority with gains primarily at Conservative expense. This positioning stems from the 2025 federal election outcome, where Liberals secured 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144 before consolidating further through by-elections and floor crossings into 2026. Consistent survey trends across multiple firms, including recent August releases, reflect sustained voter support for the governing party on economic and stability metrics amid limited Conservative momentum. With implied probabilities near 95% against a Conservative seat flip, traders reflect this entrenched polling gap and absence of major disruptive events. Realistic shifts could still arise from sharp economic deterioration, policy controversies ahead of the August 31 by-elections, or changes in voter priorities on affordability and housing that erode the current Liberal advantage before any future vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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