Canada's most recent federal election occurred in April 2025, producing a Liberal minority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney that sits three seats short of a majority. The Canada Elections Act sets the next fixed-date vote for October 2029, and no parliamentary confidence crisis, supply bill defeat, or other trigger has emerged in the intervening period. Recent by-elections in April 2026 and current polling showing modest Liberal leads have further reduced incentives for an early dissolution. With only days remaining until the June 30 cutoff and standard campaign timelines requiring at least 37 days, traders assign overwhelming probability against a snap election call. A sudden loss of supply or unforeseen parliamentary defeat could still force reconsideration, though neither appears imminent.