**USMCA extension talks remain stalled following the July 1, 2026 joint review.** The United States formally declined to confirm a 16-year renewal under the agreement’s sunset clause, triggering mandatory annual reviews through 2036 instead. Mexico and Canada had both signaled support for extension to 2042, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated the pact would not be renewed in its current form, citing demands for stricter rules of origin (especially autos), higher North American content requirements, and measures to limit benefits for goods with Chinese inputs. Bilateral negotiations with Mexico have advanced on labor, agriculture, steel, autos, and economic security, with a third round completed in July and a September session planned. Canada has yet to begin substantive talks. President Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with existing trade balances and outcomes, keeping the process in a protracted negotiation phase rather than a straightforward extension. These confirmed developments—centered on the missed July deadline and ongoing bilateral haggling—underpin traders’ strong consensus against an extension occurring in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
12% chance
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
12% chance
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**USMCA extension talks remain stalled following the July 1, 2026 joint review.** The United States formally declined to confirm a 16-year renewal under the agreement’s sunset clause, triggering mandatory annual reviews through 2036 instead. Mexico and Canada had both signaled support for extension to 2042, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated the pact would not be renewed in its current form, citing demands for stricter rules of origin (especially autos), higher North American content requirements, and measures to limit benefits for goods with Chinese inputs.
Bilateral negotiations with Mexico have advanced on labor, agriculture, steel, autos, and economic security, with a third round completed in July and a September session planned. Canada has yet to begin substantive talks. President Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with existing trade balances and outcomes, keeping the process in a protracted negotiation phase rather than a straightforward extension.
These confirmed developments—centered on the missed July deadline and ongoing bilateral haggling—underpin traders’ strong consensus against an extension occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,716Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**USMCA extension talks remain stalled following the July 1, 2026 joint review.** The United States formally declined to confirm a 16-year renewal under the agreement’s sunset clause, triggering mandatory annual reviews through 2036 instead. Mexico and Canada had both signaled support for extension to 2042, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated the pact would not be renewed in its current form, citing demands for stricter rules of origin (especially autos), higher North American content requirements, and measures to limit benefits for goods with Chinese inputs.
Bilateral negotiations with Mexico have advanced on labor, agriculture, steel, autos, and economic security, with a third round completed in July and a September session planned. Canada has yet to begin substantive talks. President Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with existing trade balances and outcomes, keeping the process in a protracted negotiation phase rather than a straightforward extension.
These confirmed developments—centered on the missed July deadline and ongoing bilateral haggling—underpin traders’ strong consensus against an extension occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,716Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**USMCA extension talks remain stalled following the July 1, 2026 joint review.** The United States formally declined to confirm a 16-year renewal under the agreement’s sunset clause, triggering mandatory annual reviews through 2036 instead. Mexico and Canada had both signaled support for extension to 2042, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated the pact would not be renewed in its current form, citing demands for stricter rules of origin (especially autos), higher North American content requirements, and measures to limit benefits for goods with Chinese inputs. Bilateral negotiations with Mexico have advanced on labor, agriculture, steel, autos, and economic security, with a third round completed in July and a September session planned. Canada has yet to begin substantive talks. President Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with existing trade balances and outcomes, keeping the process in a protracted negotiation phase rather than a straightforward extension. These confirmed developments—centered on the missed July deadline and ongoing bilateral haggling—underpin traders’ strong consensus against an extension occurring in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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