Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 65-89 posts (36.5% implied probability) over April 6-8, closely trailed by 40-64 (28.5%), reflecting Elon Musk's recent variable X posting pace averaging 25-35 daily amid spikes like 103 on April 3 but moderation to 22 on April 2 and a steady dozen-plus by midday April 5. This competitive split stems from uncertainty in his social media engagement, which surges on viral political commentary, xAI developments, or X platform updates—as seen in today's API upgrade promotions—but tempers during quieter periods. Key swing factors include potential Tesla/SpaceX announcements or cultural flashpoints over these weekdays, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from breaking news driving higher-volume threads. Markets remain fluid ahead of tomorrow's kickoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour65-89 37%
40-64 29%
90-114 23%
115-139 11%
NOUVEAU
$96,882 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$96,882 Vol.
8 avr. 2026
<40
3%
40-64
29%
65-89
37%
90-114
23%
115-139
11%
140-164
2%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 37%
40-64 29%
90-114 23%
115-139 11%
NOUVEAU
$96,882 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$96,882 Vol.
8 avr. 2026
<40
$9,324 Vol.
3%
40-64
$2,115 Vol.
29%
65-89
$2,235 Vol.
37%
90-114
$1,472 Vol.
23%
115-139
$1,753 Vol.
11%
140-164
$3,463 Vol.
2%
165-189
$6,330 Vol.
1%
190-214
$20,562 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$18,012 Vol.
<1%
240+
$31,659 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 6 12:00 PM ET to April 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 65-89 posts (36.5% implied probability) over April 6-8, closely trailed by 40-64 (28.5%), reflecting Elon Musk's recent variable X posting pace averaging 25-35 daily amid spikes like 103 on April 3 but moderation to 22 on April 2 and a steady dozen-plus by midday April 5. This competitive split stems from uncertainty in his social media engagement, which surges on viral political commentary, xAI developments, or X platform updates—as seen in today's API upgrade promotions—but tempers during quieter periods. Key swing factors include potential Tesla/SpaceX announcements or cultural flashpoints over these weekdays, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from breaking news driving higher-volume threads. Markets remain fluid ahead of tomorrow's kickoff.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 6 12:00 PM ET to April 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 4, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$96,882Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:08 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 6 12:00 PM ET to April 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 65-89 posts (36.5% implied probability) over April 6-8, closely trailed by 40-64 (28.5%), reflecting Elon Musk's recent variable X posting pace averaging 25-35 daily amid spikes like 103 on April 3 but moderation to 22 on April 2 and a steady dozen-plus by midday April 5. This competitive split stems from uncertainty in his social media engagement, which surges on viral political commentary, xAI developments, or X platform updates—as seen in today's API upgrade promotions—but tempers during quieter periods. Key swing factors include potential Tesla/SpaceX announcements or cultural flashpoints over these weekdays, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from breaking news driving higher-volume threads. Markets remain fluid ahead of tomorrow's kickoff.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 6 12:00 PM ET to April 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$96,882Date de fin
8 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 4, 2026, 12:08 PM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 65-89 posts (36.5% implied probability) over April 6-8, closely trailed by 40-64 (28.5%), reflecting Elon Musk's recent variable X posting pace averaging 25-35 daily amid spikes like 103 on April 3 but moderation to 22 on April 2 and a steady dozen-plus by midday April 5. This competitive split stems from uncertainty in his social media engagement, which surges on viral political commentary, xAI developments, or X platform updates—as seen in today's API upgrade promotions—but tempers during quieter periods. Key swing factors include potential Tesla/SpaceX announcements or cultural flashpoints over these weekdays, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from breaking news driving higher-volume threads. Markets remain fluid ahead of tomorrow's kickoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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