Recent U.S. inflation data and labor market resilience have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven largely by energy prices amid Middle East tensions and higher oil costs, while core CPI reached 2.9%. The May jobs report added 172,000 payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling a solid but not overheating labor market. Against this backdrop, the Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% in recent meetings, citing persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty. These factors have produced the current market consensus favoring a pause, with limited odds on modest adjustments should incoming data shift the inflation or employment outlook.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNo change 71%
25 bps increase 18%
25 bps decrease 10.1%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
$329,296 Vol.
$329,296 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
10%
No change
71%
25 bps increase
18%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 71%
25 bps increase 18%
25 bps decrease 10.1%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
$329,296 Vol.
$329,296 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$54,876 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$65,494 Vol.
10%
No change
$87,602 Vol.
71%
25 bps increase
$69,636 Vol.
18%
50+ bps increase
$51,689 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data and labor market resilience have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven largely by energy prices amid Middle East tensions and higher oil costs, while core CPI reached 2.9%. The May jobs report added 172,000 payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling a solid but not overheating labor market. Against this backdrop, the Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% in recent meetings, citing persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty. These factors have produced the current market consensus favoring a pause, with limited odds on modest adjustments should incoming data shift the inflation or employment outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$329,296Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data and labor market resilience have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven largely by energy prices amid Middle East tensions and higher oil costs, while core CPI reached 2.9%. The May jobs report added 172,000 payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling a solid but not overheating labor market. Against this backdrop, the Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% in recent meetings, citing persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty. These factors have produced the current market consensus favoring a pause, with limited odds on modest adjustments should incoming data shift the inflation or employment outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$329,296Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data and labor market resilience have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—driven largely by energy prices amid Middle East tensions and higher oil costs, while core CPI reached 2.9%. The May jobs report added 172,000 payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling a solid but not overheating labor market. Against this backdrop, the Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% in recent meetings, citing persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty. These factors have produced the current market consensus favoring a pause, with limited odds on modest adjustments should incoming data shift the inflation or employment outlook.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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