Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourApril 30 46%
April 14 46%
April 16 45%
April 18 45%
April 10
38%
April 11
21%
April 12
43%
April 13
44%
April 14
46%
April 15
40%
April 16
45%
April 17
40%
April 18
45%
April 19
42%
April 20
40%
April 21
43%
April 22
42%
April 23
41%
April 24
43%
April 25
39%
April 26
41%
April 27
40%
April 28
41%
April 29
43%
April 30
46%
No release by April 30
43%
April 30 46%
April 14 46%
April 16 45%
April 18 45%
April 10
38%
April 11
21%
April 12
43%
April 13
44%
April 14
46%
April 15
40%
April 16
45%
April 17
40%
April 18
45%
April 19
42%
April 20
40%
April 21
43%
April 22
42%
April 23
41%
April 24
43%
April 25
39%
April 26
41%
April 27
40%
April 28
41%
April 29
43%
April 30
46%
No release by April 30
43%
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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