Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS project Ankara's highest temperature on April 4 at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies with possible scattered showers, driving the 88% market-implied probability for 12°C or higher as traders discount colder outcomes. Over the past 48 hours, model runs have converged sharply on mild conditions from southerly airflow and weakening cold fronts, surging odds for warmer thresholds from mid-30s to near-90% while collapsing sub-12°C shares. Historical early-April highs average 15–17°C, with low ensemble spread signaling high confidence despite minor precipitation risks; final resolution hinges on official Esenboğa Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on April 4?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 4?
12°C or higher 88%
11°C 7%
10°C 1.2%
9°C 1.0%
$27,097 Vol.
$27,097 Vol.
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
7%
12°C or higher
88%
12°C or higher 88%
11°C 7%
10°C 1.2%
9°C 1.0%
$27,097 Vol.
$27,097 Vol.
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
7%
12°C or higher
88%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS project Ankara's highest temperature on April 4 at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies with possible scattered showers, driving the 88% market-implied probability for 12°C or higher as traders discount colder outcomes. Over the past 48 hours, model runs have converged sharply on mild conditions from southerly airflow and weakening cold fronts, surging odds for warmer thresholds from mid-30s to near-90% while collapsing sub-12°C shares. Historical early-April highs average 15–17°C, with low ensemble spread signaling high confidence despite minor precipitation risks; final resolution hinges on official Esenboğa Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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