Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecasts for Ankara's highest temperature on April 6 at Esenboğa International Airport, with 15°C and 16°C tied at 30.5% implied probability and 14°C close at 24.5%, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest April 2 update projecting a 15°C midday high amid partly cloudy conditions. ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hover near 14°C, with spreads to 12-18°C highlighting variability from a lingering low-pressure system that capped recent highs at 14-15°C. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon clearing boosting insolation toward 16°C versus persistent cloudiness favoring 14°C, consistent with early April's continental climate swings. New model runs and MGM briefings expected April 4-5 could sharpen odds before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on April 6?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 6?
16°C 31%
15°C 30%
14°C 25%
17°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
7%
14°C
25%
15°C
30%
16°C
31%
17°C
8%
18°C
4%
19°C or higher
2%
16°C 31%
15°C 30%
14°C 25%
17°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
6 avr. 2026
9°C or below
$663 Vol.
1%
10°C
$565 Vol.
1%
11°C
$666 Vol.
1%
12°C
$188 Vol.
3%
13°C
$233 Vol.
7%
14°C
$676 Vol.
25%
15°C
$375 Vol.
30%
16°C
$463 Vol.
31%
17°C
$194 Vol.
8%
18°C
$195 Vol.
4%
19°C or higher
$222 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecasts for Ankara's highest temperature on April 6 at Esenboğa International Airport, with 15°C and 16°C tied at 30.5% implied probability and 14°C close at 24.5%, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest April 2 update projecting a 15°C midday high amid partly cloudy conditions. ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hover near 14°C, with spreads to 12-18°C highlighting variability from a lingering low-pressure system that capped recent highs at 14-15°C. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon clearing boosting insolation toward 16°C versus persistent cloudiness favoring 14°C, consistent with early April's continental climate swings. New model runs and MGM briefings expected April 4-5 could sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$4,440Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecasts for Ankara's highest temperature on April 6 at Esenboğa International Airport, with 15°C and 16°C tied at 30.5% implied probability and 14°C close at 24.5%, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest April 2 update projecting a 15°C midday high amid partly cloudy conditions. ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hover near 14°C, with spreads to 12-18°C highlighting variability from a lingering low-pressure system that capped recent highs at 14-15°C. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon clearing boosting insolation toward 16°C versus persistent cloudiness favoring 14°C, consistent with early April's continental climate swings. New model runs and MGM briefings expected April 4-5 could sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,440Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecasts for Ankara's highest temperature on April 6 at Esenboğa International Airport, with 15°C and 16°C tied at 30.5% implied probability and 14°C close at 24.5%, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest April 2 update projecting a 15°C midday high amid partly cloudy conditions. ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hover near 14°C, with spreads to 12-18°C highlighting variability from a lingering low-pressure system that capped recent highs at 14-15°C. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon clearing boosting insolation toward 16°C versus persistent cloudiness favoring 14°C, consistent with early April's continental climate swings. New model runs and MGM briefings expected April 4-5 could sharpen odds before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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