Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 32% implied probability to a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which converge on daytime highs of 25–27°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds typical for early April in this subtropical region. The fragmented distribution—20.5% for 25°C, 18% for 27°C, and tapering sharply beyond—reflects inherent forecast uncertainty from variables like coastal sea breezes suppressing peaks, urban heat island effects boosting them, or isolated showers cooling surfaces. China Meteorological Administration bulletins through April 3 emphasize stable atmospheric conditions without extremes, aligning with historical early-April averages near 26°C; fresh model outputs later today could refine these closely matched odds ahead of resolution based on official Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
26°C 30%
25°C 20%
27°C 19%
24°C 13%
$11,412 Vol.
$11,412 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
3%
24°C
13%
25°C
20%
26°C
30%
27°C
19%
28°C
11%
29°C or higher
3%
26°C 30%
25°C 20%
27°C 19%
24°C 13%
$11,412 Vol.
$11,412 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
19°C or below
$2,059 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,172 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,317 Vol.
3%
23°C
$908 Vol.
3%
24°C
$577 Vol.
13%
25°C
$433 Vol.
20%
26°C
$688 Vol.
30%
27°C
$541 Vol.
19%
28°C
$1,060 Vol.
11%
29°C or higher
$1,552 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 32% implied probability to a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which converge on daytime highs of 25–27°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds typical for early April in this subtropical region. The fragmented distribution—20.5% for 25°C, 18% for 27°C, and tapering sharply beyond—reflects inherent forecast uncertainty from variables like coastal sea breezes suppressing peaks, urban heat island effects boosting them, or isolated showers cooling surfaces. China Meteorological Administration bulletins through April 3 emphasize stable atmospheric conditions without extremes, aligning with historical early-April averages near 26°C; fresh model outputs later today could refine these closely matched odds ahead of resolution based on official Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$11,412Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 32% implied probability to a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which converge on daytime highs of 25–27°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds typical for early April in this subtropical region. The fragmented distribution—20.5% for 25°C, 18% for 27°C, and tapering sharply beyond—reflects inherent forecast uncertainty from variables like coastal sea breezes suppressing peaks, urban heat island effects boosting them, or isolated showers cooling surfaces. China Meteorological Administration bulletins through April 3 emphasize stable atmospheric conditions without extremes, aligning with historical early-April averages near 26°C; fresh model outputs later today could refine these closely matched odds ahead of resolution based on official Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,412Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 32% implied probability to a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4, driven by the latest numerical weather prediction model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which converge on daytime highs of 25–27°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds typical for early April in this subtropical region. The fragmented distribution—20.5% for 25°C, 18% for 27°C, and tapering sharply beyond—reflects inherent forecast uncertainty from variables like coastal sea breezes suppressing peaks, urban heat island effects boosting them, or isolated showers cooling surfaces. China Meteorological Administration bulletins through April 3 emphasize stable atmospheric conditions without extremes, aligning with historical early-April averages near 26°C; fresh model outputs later today could refine these closely matched odds ahead of resolution based on official Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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