Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's April 5 high temperature in the 26-28°C range, driving the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 27°C (28%), 26°C (24%), and 28°C (22.5%). This clustering stems from consensus on typical early-April climatology—average highs around 26°C amid subtropical humidity and sea breezes—but with uncertainty over afternoon thunderstorm timing and cloud cover, which could suppress peaks via shading and evaporative cooling or permit 28°C under partly sunny conditions. Recent model runs through April 3 show slight divergence on convective activity influenced by a weakening high-pressure ridge, while new bulletins and 12-hour updates expected today may refine trader sentiment ahead of resolution based on Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 5?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 5?
27°C 28%
26°C 27%
28°C 16%
25°C 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 avr. 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
12%
26°C
27%
27°C
28%
28°C
16%
29°C
9%
30°C or higher
4%
27°C 28%
26°C 27%
28°C 16%
25°C 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 avr. 2026
20°C or below
$1,033 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$941 Vol.
1%
22°C
$709 Vol.
1%
23°C
$578 Vol.
1%
24°C
$456 Vol.
4%
25°C
$356 Vol.
12%
26°C
$456 Vol.
27%
27°C
$416 Vol.
28%
28°C
$398 Vol.
16%
29°C
$658 Vol.
9%
30°C or higher
$613 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's April 5 high temperature in the 26-28°C range, driving the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 27°C (28%), 26°C (24%), and 28°C (22.5%). This clustering stems from consensus on typical early-April climatology—average highs around 26°C amid subtropical humidity and sea breezes—but with uncertainty over afternoon thunderstorm timing and cloud cover, which could suppress peaks via shading and evaporative cooling or permit 28°C under partly sunny conditions. Recent model runs through April 3 show slight divergence on convective activity influenced by a weakening high-pressure ridge, while new bulletins and 12-hour updates expected today may refine trader sentiment ahead of resolution based on Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ET
Volume
$6,604Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's April 5 high temperature in the 26-28°C range, driving the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 27°C (28%), 26°C (24%), and 28°C (22.5%). This clustering stems from consensus on typical early-April climatology—average highs around 26°C amid subtropical humidity and sea breezes—but with uncertainty over afternoon thunderstorm timing and cloud cover, which could suppress peaks via shading and evaporative cooling or permit 28°C under partly sunny conditions. Recent model runs through April 3 show slight divergence on convective activity influenced by a weakening high-pressure ridge, while new bulletins and 12-hour updates expected today may refine trader sentiment ahead of resolution based on Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,604Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's April 5 high temperature in the 26-28°C range, driving the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 27°C (28%), 26°C (24%), and 28°C (22.5%). This clustering stems from consensus on typical early-April climatology—average highs around 26°C amid subtropical humidity and sea breezes—but with uncertainty over afternoon thunderstorm timing and cloud cover, which could suppress peaks via shading and evaporative cooling or permit 28°C under partly sunny conditions. Recent model runs through April 3 show slight divergence on convective activity influenced by a weakening high-pressure ridge, while new bulletins and 12-hour updates expected today may refine trader sentiment ahead of resolution based on Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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