Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 58°F or higher (98.4% implied probability) for New York City's highest temperature on April 4 at Central Park, reflecting the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 70°F under partly sunny skies with light winds. This positioning stems from the most recent model runs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), showing consensus on a building high-pressure ridge ushering warm air masses from the south after early-week showers, yielding temperatures 10–15°F above the early-April climatological normal of 56°F. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of cooler marine air, persistent low clouds reducing insolation, or a delayed cold frontal passage, though ensemble spreads remain narrow with low odds of sub-58°F outcomes; monitor NWS updates this afternoon for refined guidance ahead of evening observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in NYC on April 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
58°F or higher 98.2%
56-57°F 1.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
$103,760 Vol.
$103,760 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58°F or higher
98%
58°F or higher 98.2%
56-57°F 1.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
$103,760 Vol.
$103,760 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
39°F or below
$12,459 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$11,016 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$7,170 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$7,699 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$7,330 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$10,326 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$11,613 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$8,372 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$7,146 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$7,669 Vol.
1%
58°F or higher
$12,964 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 58°F or higher (98.4% implied probability) for New York City's highest temperature on April 4 at Central Park, reflecting the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 70°F under partly sunny skies with light winds. This positioning stems from the most recent model runs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), showing consensus on a building high-pressure ridge ushering warm air masses from the south after early-week showers, yielding temperatures 10–15°F above the early-April climatological normal of 56°F. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of cooler marine air, persistent low clouds reducing insolation, or a delayed cold frontal passage, though ensemble spreads remain narrow with low odds of sub-58°F outcomes; monitor NWS updates this afternoon for refined guidance ahead of evening observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Volume
$103,760Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 58°F or higher (98.4% implied probability) for New York City's highest temperature on April 4 at Central Park, reflecting the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 70°F under partly sunny skies with light winds. This positioning stems from the most recent model runs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), showing consensus on a building high-pressure ridge ushering warm air masses from the south after early-week showers, yielding temperatures 10–15°F above the early-April climatological normal of 56°F. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of cooler marine air, persistent low clouds reducing insolation, or a delayed cold frontal passage, though ensemble spreads remain narrow with low odds of sub-58°F outcomes; monitor NWS updates this afternoon for refined guidance ahead of evening observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$103,760Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 58°F or higher (98.4% implied probability) for New York City's highest temperature on April 4 at Central Park, reflecting the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 70°F under partly sunny skies with light winds. This positioning stems from the most recent model runs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), showing consensus on a building high-pressure ridge ushering warm air masses from the south after early-week showers, yielding temperatures 10–15°F above the early-April climatological normal of 56°F. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of cooler marine air, persistent low clouds reducing insolation, or a delayed cold frontal passage, though ensemble spreads remain narrow with low odds of sub-58°F outcomes; monitor NWS updates this afternoon for refined guidance ahead of evening observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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