National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF have converged on post-frontal conditions for Houston on April 6, driving trader consensus toward low-to-mid 70s highs at William P. Hobby Airport, following a warm spell peaking near 86°F earlier this week amid scattered showers over the Easter weekend. The slight edge for 72-73°F (35.5% implied probability) over 70-71°F (27%) stems from ECMWF's projection of partial afternoon clearing and lighter southerly winds allowing modest diurnal heating, contrasted by GFS runs favoring persistent cloud cover and earlier precipitation timing that caps peaks lower. Key differentiators include frontal passage speed, subsidence strength, and boundary layer mixing; new 12z model cycles and NWS updates expected Sunday morning could shift the balance amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.