Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 4 around 20-22°C at key stations like Pudong International Airport, driving trader consensus with 34.5% implied probability for 21°C and 25.5% for 22°C amid model spreads exceeding 5°C from uncertain cloud cover and southerly flow. These closely matched leaders reflect genuine forecast divergence: warmer members factor stronger warm air advection over the East China Sea, while cooler outliers account for potential overcast skies suppressing daytime heating, against an early-April climatological baseline of 18-19°C highs. Urban heat island effects could nudge toward 22°C, but new model runs expected overnight may refine guidance before resolution based on official observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
21°C 43%
22°C 26%
20°C 13%
23°C 11%
$64,564 Vol.
$64,564 Vol.
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
13%
21°C
43%
22°C
26%
23°C
11%
24°C or higher
7%
21°C 43%
22°C 26%
20°C 13%
23°C 11%
$64,564 Vol.
$64,564 Vol.
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
13%
21°C
43%
22°C
26%
23°C
11%
24°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 4 around 20-22°C at key stations like Pudong International Airport, driving trader consensus with 34.5% implied probability for 21°C and 25.5% for 22°C amid model spreads exceeding 5°C from uncertain cloud cover and southerly flow. These closely matched leaders reflect genuine forecast divergence: warmer members factor stronger warm air advection over the East China Sea, while cooler outliers account for potential overcast skies suppressing daytime heating, against an early-April climatological baseline of 18-19°C highs. Urban heat island effects could nudge toward 22°C, but new model runs expected overnight may refine guidance before resolution based on official observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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