Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 6 at 22–24°C amid persistent overcast skies and moderate southerly winds advecting mild air masses. Recent observations, including April 2's 23°C high under cloudy conditions and April 4's forecasted 22°C overcast maximum, underscore cloud cover's role in suppressing peak insolation by 1–2°C compared to sunnier analogs. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon clearing potential and urban heat island amplification; historical early-April averages hover at 17–19°C, but this warm anomaly stems from reduced cold fronts. New CMA and global model runs expected within 24 hours could refine these implied probabilities further.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 6?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 6?
23°C 25%
22°C 24%
24°C 17%
25°C 13%
$20,960 Vol.
$20,960 Vol.
6 avr. 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
8%
22°C
24%
23°C
25%
24°C
17%
25°C
13%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
5%
23°C 25%
22°C 24%
24°C 17%
25°C 13%
$20,960 Vol.
$20,960 Vol.
6 avr. 2026
17°C or below
$3,760 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,051 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,218 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,273 Vol.
3%
21°C
$1,873 Vol.
8%
22°C
$1,495 Vol.
24%
23°C
$1,406 Vol.
25%
24°C
$2,289 Vol.
17%
25°C
$835 Vol.
13%
26°C
$1,846 Vol.
8%
27°C or higher
$3,916 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 6 at 22–24°C amid persistent overcast skies and moderate southerly winds advecting mild air masses. Recent observations, including April 2's 23°C high under cloudy conditions and April 4's forecasted 22°C overcast maximum, underscore cloud cover's role in suppressing peak insolation by 1–2°C compared to sunnier analogs. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon clearing potential and urban heat island amplification; historical early-April averages hover at 17–19°C, but this warm anomaly stems from reduced cold fronts. New CMA and global model runs expected within 24 hours could refine these implied probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$20,960Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 6 at 22–24°C amid persistent overcast skies and moderate southerly winds advecting mild air masses. Recent observations, including April 2's 23°C high under cloudy conditions and April 4's forecasted 22°C overcast maximum, underscore cloud cover's role in suppressing peak insolation by 1–2°C compared to sunnier analogs. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon clearing potential and urban heat island amplification; historical early-April averages hover at 17–19°C, but this warm anomaly stems from reduced cold fronts. New CMA and global model runs expected within 24 hours could refine these implied probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,960Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 6 at 22–24°C amid persistent overcast skies and moderate southerly winds advecting mild air masses. Recent observations, including April 2's 23°C high under cloudy conditions and April 4's forecasted 22°C overcast maximum, underscore cloud cover's role in suppressing peak insolation by 1–2°C compared to sunnier analogs. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon clearing potential and urban heat island amplification; historical early-April averages hover at 17–19°C, but this warm anomaly stems from reduced cold fronts. New CMA and global model runs expected within 24 hours could refine these implied probabilities further.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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