Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) models project Beijing's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 19-20°C under partly hazy conditions with southerly winds, directly shaping trader consensus where 19°C holds a 36.5% implied probability and 20°C trails at 28%. This tight race reflects springtime forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover limiting insolation, potential northerly gusts mixing cooler air, and subtle frontal passages, against an early-April climatological average high of about 19°C. Key differentiators include ECMWF's slightly cooler bias versus GFS warmth; overnight 00Z runs and morning soundings will provide final clarity before resolution via official observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?
19°C 37%
20°C 26%
18°C 18%
21°C 13%
$17,538 Vol.
$17,538 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
7%
18°C
18%
19°C
37%
20°C
26%
21°C
13%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
2%
19°C 37%
20°C 26%
18°C 18%
21°C 13%
$17,538 Vol.
$17,538 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
7%
18°C
18%
19°C
37%
20°C
26%
21°C
13%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) models project Beijing's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 19-20°C under partly hazy conditions with southerly winds, directly shaping trader consensus where 19°C holds a 36.5% implied probability and 20°C trails at 28%. This tight race reflects springtime forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover limiting insolation, potential northerly gusts mixing cooler air, and subtle frontal passages, against an early-April climatological average high of about 19°C. Key differentiators include ECMWF's slightly cooler bias versus GFS warmth; overnight 00Z runs and morning soundings will provide final clarity before resolution via official observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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