Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 19°C today, closely followed by 20°C at 28.5%, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting mild early-spring conditions with highs in the late teens Celsius. Above-normal temperatures through late March—driving record-early cherry blossom forecasts released by JMC on April 2—have entrenched a warm pattern, with light southerly winds and high pressure limiting extremes. Historical early-April averages hover at 17-19°C, but current stability caps upside risks for 21°C+. JMA hourly updates from Tokyo stations will refine trajectories through resolution based on official maximum readings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
19°C 44%
18°C 22%
20°C 19%
21°C or higher 11.1%
$98,867 Vol.
$98,867 Vol.
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
22%
19°C
44%
20°C
19%
21°C or higher
11%
19°C 44%
18°C 22%
20°C 19%
21°C or higher 11.1%
$98,867 Vol.
$98,867 Vol.
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
22%
19°C
44%
20°C
19%
21°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Fenêtre de contestation
Final
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Fenêtre de contestation
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 19°C today, closely followed by 20°C at 28.5%, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting mild early-spring conditions with highs in the late teens Celsius. Above-normal temperatures through late March—driving record-early cherry blossom forecasts released by JMC on April 2—have entrenched a warm pattern, with light southerly winds and high pressure limiting extremes. Historical early-April averages hover at 17-19°C, but current stability caps upside risks for 21°C+. JMA hourly updates from Tokyo stations will refine trajectories through resolution based on official maximum readings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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