Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 15°C (39%) and 16°C (33.5%) for London's highest temperature on April 4 at London City Airport, driven by the latest Met Office and BBC forecasts indicating highs of 15–16°C under overcast skies with early drizzle clearing to possible sunny intervals and strengthening south-westerly winds gusting to 40 mph. These conditions limit solar insolation while gusty airflow advects milder Atlantic air, nudging above the April climatological average of 13°C, though wind chill caps feels-like temperatures near 12°C. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, but differentiation between 15°C and 16°C hinges on afternoon cloud breaks and urban heat effects; hourly Met Office updates through the day will refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution using Wunderground data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in London on April 4?
Highest temperature in London on April 4?
15°C 40%
16°C 35%
17°C or higher 21%
14°C 10%
$45,413 Vol.
$45,413 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
10%
15°C
40%
16°C
35%
17°C or higher
21%
15°C 40%
16°C 35%
17°C or higher 21%
14°C 10%
$45,413 Vol.
$45,413 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
10%
15°C
40%
16°C
35%
17°C or higher
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 15°C (39%) and 16°C (33.5%) for London's highest temperature on April 4 at London City Airport, driven by the latest Met Office and BBC forecasts indicating highs of 15–16°C under overcast skies with early drizzle clearing to possible sunny intervals and strengthening south-westerly winds gusting to 40 mph. These conditions limit solar insolation while gusty airflow advects milder Atlantic air, nudging above the April climatological average of 13°C, though wind chill caps feels-like temperatures near 12°C. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, but differentiation between 15°C and 16°C hinges on afternoon cloud breaks and urban heat effects; hourly Met Office updates through the day will refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution using Wunderground data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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