USGS data confirms a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck 100 km ENE of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026, at 35 km depth along the subduction interface where the Pacific plate thrusts beneath the North American plate, the most recent M7+ event worldwide and the sole one in the past 30 days. This follows four others in 2026, consistent with the long-term global average of about 16 such quakes annually, primarily along active plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus reflects this baseline rate—roughly one every 18-20 days—tempered by inherent unpredictability, as earthquakes follow a Poisson-like distribution with no reliable short-term forecasts. Continuous USGS real-time monitoring provides immediate updates on any new seismic activity meeting the M7.0 threshold for market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn autre séisme de 7,0 ou plus de... ?
$95,647 Vol.
7 avril
Non
15 avril
Non
30 avril
Oui
$95,647 Vol.
7 avril
Non
15 avril
Non
30 avril
Oui
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
USGS data confirms a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck 100 km ENE of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026, at 35 km depth along the subduction interface where the Pacific plate thrusts beneath the North American plate, the most recent M7+ event worldwide and the sole one in the past 30 days. This follows four others in 2026, consistent with the long-term global average of about 16 such quakes annually, primarily along active plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus reflects this baseline rate—roughly one every 18-20 days—tempered by inherent unpredictability, as earthquakes follow a Poisson-like distribution with no reliable short-term forecasts. Continuous USGS real-time monitoring provides immediate updates on any new seismic activity meeting the M7.0 threshold for market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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