Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 67°F or below in New York City on April 5 at 67.5% implied probability, aligned with the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs of 63-67°F under a post-cold-front regime. Recent temperature whiplash—record 78°F at JFK on April 1 following 80°F highs earlier in the week—has given way to a cooler air mass influx, moderating conditions with partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and dew points in the 40s°F limiting convective potential. Historical early April averages hover near 57°F, but model uncertainty persists around boundary layer mixing; watch NWS updates and fresh model runs by April 4 for potential shifts toward 68-69°F at 18.5%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in NYC on April 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 5?
67°F or below 69%
68-69°F 18%
70-71°F 7%
72-73°F 5.5%
NOUVEAU
$15,155 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$15,155 Vol.
5 avr. 2026
67°F or below
69%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
67°F or below 69%
68-69°F 18%
70-71°F 7%
72-73°F 5.5%
NOUVEAU
$15,155 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$15,155 Vol.
5 avr. 2026
67°F or below
$2,043 Vol.
69%
68-69°F
$1,647 Vol.
18%
70-71°F
$1,124 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$876 Vol.
6%
74-75°F
$1,032 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$1,805 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$1,826 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$1,362 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$916 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$1,270 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 67°F or below in New York City on April 5 at 67.5% implied probability, aligned with the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs of 63-67°F under a post-cold-front regime. Recent temperature whiplash—record 78°F at JFK on April 1 following 80°F highs earlier in the week—has given way to a cooler air mass influx, moderating conditions with partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and dew points in the 40s°F limiting convective potential. Historical early April averages hover near 57°F, but model uncertainty persists around boundary layer mixing; watch NWS updates and fresh model runs by April 4 for potential shifts toward 68-69°F at 18.5%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$15,155Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 67°F or below in New York City on April 5 at 67.5% implied probability, aligned with the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs of 63-67°F under a post-cold-front regime. Recent temperature whiplash—record 78°F at JFK on April 1 following 80°F highs earlier in the week—has given way to a cooler air mass influx, moderating conditions with partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and dew points in the 40s°F limiting convective potential. Historical early April averages hover near 57°F, but model uncertainty persists around boundary layer mixing; watch NWS updates and fresh model runs by April 4 for potential shifts toward 68-69°F at 18.5%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,155Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 67°F or below in New York City on April 5 at 67.5% implied probability, aligned with the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime highs of 63-67°F under a post-cold-front regime. Recent temperature whiplash—record 78°F at JFK on April 1 following 80°F highs earlier in the week—has given way to a cooler air mass influx, moderating conditions with partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and dew points in the 40s°F limiting convective potential. Historical early April averages hover near 57°F, but model uncertainty persists around boundary layer mixing; watch NWS updates and fresh model runs by April 4 for potential shifts toward 68-69°F at 18.5%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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