Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Ankara's continental spring weather, with closely matched implied probabilities—21°C or higher at 25.5% and 11°C or below at 24.5%—driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 16-18°C but with wide spreads. Recent model runs, including those implying 17°C maxima under broken clouds per extended outlooks, follow a spring heatwave alert across Turkey that elevated warm-outcome bets, countered by risks of northerly cold air advection maintaining cool probabilities. Historical April averages near 17°C underscore variability from jet stream shifts; watch daily Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 12z model cycles for catalysts ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Ankara le 7 avril ?
La température la plus élevée à Ankara le 7 avril ?
16°C 21%
15°C 18%
19°C 15%
20°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 avr. 2026
11°C ou moins
4%
12°C
8%
13°C
9%
14°C
9%
15°C
18%
16°C
21%
17°C
12%
18°C
11%
19°C
15%
20°C
13%
21°C ou plus
12%
16°C 21%
15°C 18%
19°C 15%
20°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 avr. 2026
11°C ou moins
$0 Vol.
4%
12°C
$0 Vol.
8%
13°C
$0 Vol.
9%
14°C
$0 Vol.
9%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
12%
18°C
$0 Vol.
11%
19°C
$0 Vol.
15%
20°C
$0 Vol.
13%
21°C ou plus
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Ankara's continental spring weather, with closely matched implied probabilities—21°C or higher at 25.5% and 11°C or below at 24.5%—driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 16-18°C but with wide spreads. Recent model runs, including those implying 17°C maxima under broken clouds per extended outlooks, follow a spring heatwave alert across Turkey that elevated warm-outcome bets, countered by risks of northerly cold air advection maintaining cool probabilities. Historical April averages near 17°C underscore variability from jet stream shifts; watch daily Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 12z model cycles for catalysts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
7 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Ankara's continental spring weather, with closely matched implied probabilities—21°C or higher at 25.5% and 11°C or below at 24.5%—driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 16-18°C but with wide spreads. Recent model runs, including those implying 17°C maxima under broken clouds per extended outlooks, follow a spring heatwave alert across Turkey that elevated warm-outcome bets, countered by risks of northerly cold air advection maintaining cool probabilities. Historical April averages near 17°C underscore variability from jet stream shifts; watch daily Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 12z model cycles for catalysts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$0Date de fin
7 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in Ankara's continental spring weather, with closely matched implied probabilities—21°C or higher at 25.5% and 11°C or below at 24.5%—driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing highs clustered around 16-18°C but with wide spreads. Recent model runs, including those implying 17°C maxima under broken clouds per extended outlooks, follow a spring heatwave alert across Turkey that elevated warm-outcome bets, countered by risks of northerly cold air advection maintaining cool probabilities. Historical April averages near 17°C underscore variability from jet stream shifts; watch daily Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and new 12z model cycles for catalysts ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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