Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 17 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 17 juillet ?
34°C 100.0%
30°C ou moins <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$94,516 Vol.
$94,516 Vol.
17 juil. 2026
30°C ou moins
Non
31°C
Non
32°C
Non
33°C
Non
34°C
Oui
35°C
Non
36°C
Non
37°C
Non
38°C
Non
39°C
Non
40°C ou plus
Non
34°C 100.0%
30°C ou moins <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$94,516 Vol.
$94,516 Vol.
17 juil. 2026
30°C ou moins
$1,952 Vol.
Non
31°C
$2,583 Vol.
Non
32°C
$8,614 Vol.
Non
33°C
$10,189 Vol.
Non
34°C
$25,201 Vol.
Oui
35°C
$22,043 Vol.
Non
36°C
$13,195 Vol.
Non
37°C
$6,133 Vol.
Non
38°C
$1,751 Vol.
Non
39°C
$1,518 Vol.
Non
40°C ou plus
$1,338 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$94,516Date de fin
17 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$94,516Date de fin
17 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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