Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Miami le 4 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Miami le 4 juillet ?
90-91°F 100.0%
79°F or below <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$67,217 Vol.
$67,217 Vol.
4 juil. 2026
79°F or below
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
Oui
92-93°F
Non
94-95 °F
Non
96-97 °F
Non
98°F ou plus
Non
90-91°F 100.0%
79°F or below <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$67,217 Vol.
$67,217 Vol.
4 juil. 2026
79°F or below
$2,642 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$794 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$2,425 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$2,017 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$3,505 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$11,333 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$17,195 Vol.
Oui
92-93°F
$12,081 Vol.
Non
94-95 °F
$6,637 Vol.
Non
96-97 °F
$5,617 Vol.
Non
98°F ou plus
$2,970 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$67,217Date de fin
4 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67,217Date de fin
4 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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