Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for August 21, 2026, shows a moderating air mass over the Northeast with surface highs most likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s at Central Park, consistent with trader consensus favoring the 78-79°F and 80-81°F bins. Primary factors include a weak frontal passage and onshore flow that limits afternoon mixing and caps temperatures below seasonal averages near 83°F. Ensemble spreads and timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF create the narrow probability gaps among the top three outcomes, while lower odds for 84°F+ reflect limited warm advection potential. Updated short-range runs and local observations tomorrow morning will further refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à New York le 21 août ?
La température la plus élevée à New York le 21 août ?
78-79°F 32%
80-81°F 25%
76-77°F 24%
82-83°F 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 août 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
32%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 32%
80-81°F 25%
76-77°F 24%
82-83°F 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 août 2026
71°F or below
$174 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$196 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$252 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$312 Vol.
24%
78-79°F
$129 Vol.
32%
80-81°F
$383 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$699 Vol.
12%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$96 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$561 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$821 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for August 21, 2026, shows a moderating air mass over the Northeast with surface highs most likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s at Central Park, consistent with trader consensus favoring the 78-79°F and 80-81°F bins. Primary factors include a weak frontal passage and onshore flow that limits afternoon mixing and caps temperatures below seasonal averages near 83°F. Ensemble spreads and timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF create the narrow probability gaps among the top three outcomes, while lower odds for 84°F+ reflect limited warm advection potential. Updated short-range runs and local observations tomorrow morning will further refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,624Date de fin
21 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for August 21, 2026, shows a moderating air mass over the Northeast with surface highs most likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s at Central Park, consistent with trader consensus favoring the 78-79°F and 80-81°F bins. Primary factors include a weak frontal passage and onshore flow that limits afternoon mixing and caps temperatures below seasonal averages near 83°F. Ensemble spreads and timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF create the narrow probability gaps among the top three outcomes, while lower odds for 84°F+ reflect limited warm advection potential. Updated short-range runs and local observations tomorrow morning will further refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,624Date de fin
21 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for August 21, 2026, shows a moderating air mass over the Northeast with surface highs most likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s at Central Park, consistent with trader consensus favoring the 78-79°F and 80-81°F bins. Primary factors include a weak frontal passage and onshore flow that limits afternoon mixing and caps temperatures below seasonal averages near 83°F. Ensemble spreads and timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF create the narrow probability gaps among the top three outcomes, while lower odds for 84°F+ reflect limited warm advection potential. Updated short-range runs and local observations tomorrow morning will further refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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