Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to a highest temperature near 74–77°F in San Francisco on August 3, reflecting persistent onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer that limits daytime heating along the immediate coast. Typical August climatology features daily highs around 68–72°F at downtown and airport stations, with occasional excursions into the mid-70s when the sea breeze weakens. Recent regional model runs show minimal warming from an approaching weak trough, keeping maximums well below the levels seen during interior heat events. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these bins captures the narrow uncertainty range in official guidance, while lower odds on 80°F+ reflect the low historical frequency of such readings under current synoptic conditions. Updated NWS briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational inputs for market resolution.