The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October pits Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by the latter’s recent local gains in Camden wards and the party’s broader London momentum. Starmer’s resignation has opened the seat, with Polanski emphasizing doorstep campaigning on housing, environment, and community issues while Labour highlights continuity under new national leadership. Projections place the Green share near 31 percent, yet variable turnout, tactical voting from other parties, and the final weeks of campaigning keep outcomes fluid. Trader probabilities clustered across the 25–40 percent bands capture this uncertainty in a first-past-the-post race where small shifts in participation or squeeze effects could separate the leading contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage du vote vert ?
Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage du vote vert ?
25-30 % 29%
30-35 % 25%
20-25 % 17%
35-40 % 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 oct. 2026
<20 %
14%
20-25 %
17%
25-30 %
29%
30-35 %
25%
35-40 %
16%
40 % +
5%
25-30 % 29%
30-35 % 25%
20-25 % 17%
35-40 % 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 oct. 2026
<20 %
$425 Vol.
14%
20-25 %
$213 Vol.
17%
25-30 %
$419 Vol.
29%
30-35 %
$272 Vol.
25%
35-40 %
$242 Vol.
16%
40 % +
$254 Vol.
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October pits Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by the latter’s recent local gains in Camden wards and the party’s broader London momentum. Starmer’s resignation has opened the seat, with Polanski emphasizing doorstep campaigning on housing, environment, and community issues while Labour highlights continuity under new national leadership. Projections place the Green share near 31 percent, yet variable turnout, tactical voting from other parties, and the final weeks of campaigning keep outcomes fluid. Trader probabilities clustered across the 25–40 percent bands capture this uncertainty in a first-past-the-post race where small shifts in participation or squeeze effects could separate the leading contenders.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,825Date de fin
8 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October pits Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by the latter’s recent local gains in Camden wards and the party’s broader London momentum. Starmer’s resignation has opened the seat, with Polanski emphasizing doorstep campaigning on housing, environment, and community issues while Labour highlights continuity under new national leadership. Projections place the Green share near 31 percent, yet variable turnout, tactical voting from other parties, and the final weeks of campaigning keep outcomes fluid. Trader probabilities clustered across the 25–40 percent bands capture this uncertainty in a first-past-the-post race where small shifts in participation or squeeze effects could separate the leading contenders.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$1,825Date de fin
8 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October pits Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by the latter’s recent local gains in Camden wards and the party’s broader London momentum. Starmer’s resignation has opened the seat, with Polanski emphasizing doorstep campaigning on housing, environment, and community issues while Labour highlights continuity under new national leadership. Projections place the Green share near 31 percent, yet variable turnout, tactical voting from other parties, and the final weeks of campaigning keep outcomes fluid. Trader probabilities clustered across the 25–40 percent bands capture this uncertainty in a first-past-the-post race where small shifts in participation or squeeze effects could separate the leading contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti travailliste obtiendra-t-il entre 40 et 45 % des voix lors de l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?
30%
Oui
Le candidat travailliste remportera-t-il l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras avec une marge de 15 % ou plus ?
34%
Oui
Sagal Abdi-Wali va-t-elle gagner l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?
82%
Oui
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