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icon for Prochaine élection partielle au Royaume-Uni convoquée par… ?
Politique·Royaume-Uni

Prochaine élection partielle au Royaume-Uni convoquée par… ?

icon for Prochaine élection partielle au Royaume-Uni convoquée par… ?
Politique·Royaume-Uni

Prochaine élection partielle au Royaume-Uni convoquée par… ?

janv. 1, 2027

janv. 1, 2027

NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

31 octobre

$0 Vol.

33%

31 décembre

$0 Vol.

43%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent UK by-elections have been triggered primarily by strategic MP resignations amid party leadership shifts and personal scrutiny. Josh Simons vacated Makerfield in May 2026 to enable Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament ahead of a Labour leadership challenge, while Nigel Farage resigned Clacton in July 2026 to seek re-election amid parliamentary inquiries into donations. Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation from Holborn and St Pancras, following his departure as prime minister, has set the next contest for October 8. The writ process, typically initiated by the relevant party whip within weeks of a vacancy, determines timing. Future triggers could stem from ongoing internal pressures, recalls, or further leadership maneuvers, though no additional vacancies have been confirmed as of mid-September.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent UK by-elections have been triggered primarily by strategic MP resignations amid party leadership shifts and personal scrutiny. Josh Simons vacated Makerfield in May 2026 to enable Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament ahead of a Labour leadership challenge, while Nigel Farage resigned Clacton in July 2026 to seek re-election amid parliamentary inquiries into donations. Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation from Holborn and St Pancras, following his departure as prime minister, has set the next contest for October 8. The writ process, typically initiated by the relevant party whip within weeks of a vacancy, determines timing. Future triggers could stem from ongoing internal pressures, recalls, or further leadership maneuvers, though no additional vacancies have been confirmed as of mid-September.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

Connexes

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Questions fréquentes

« Prochaine élection partielle au Royaume-Uni convoquée par… ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 43%, suivi de « 31 octobre » à 33%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 43¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 43% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Prochaine élection partielle au Royaume-Uni convoquée par… ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 14, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Prochaine élection partielle au Royaume-Uni convoquée par… ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Prochaine élection partielle au Royaume-Uni convoquée par… ? » est « 31 décembre » à 43%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 43% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 octobre » à 33%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Prochaine élection partielle au Royaume-Uni convoquée par… ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.