Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 140–169 (32.5%) and 170–199 (34.0%) tornadoes for April, mirroring the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182 confirmed events while accounting for an active early-month pace driven by Storm Prediction Center-documented outbreaks on April 2 across the Midwest and April 13–14 in the Plains, yielding dozens of confirmed tornadoes amid high CAPE and wind shear favoring supercells. With roughly half the month elapsed and preliminary counts nearing historical mid-month norms, the narrow lead reflects model consensus for moderate ongoing risks—Enhanced to Moderate outlooks through late April—but uncertainty in discrete storm modes versus squall lines, jet stream positioning, and final survey confirmations (typically validating 65–70% of reports). Key updates from SPC Day 3–8 convective outlooks and NCEI monthly reports will sharpen resolution trajectories.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tornades aux États-Unis en avril ?
Combien de tornades aux États-Unis en avril ?
170–199 34%
140–169 28%
290–319 16%
200–229 11%
$38,439 Vol.
$38,439 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<140
8%
140–169
30%
170–199
34%
200–229
11%
230–259
5%
260–289
20%
290–319
13%
320–350
19%
350+
6%
170–199 34%
140–169 28%
290–319 16%
200–229 11%
$38,439 Vol.
$38,439 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<140
$8,916 Vol.
8%
140–169
$6,632 Vol.
30%
170–199
$427 Vol.
34%
200–229
$95 Vol.
11%
230–259
$92 Vol.
5%
260–289
$128 Vol.
20%
290–319
$258 Vol.
13%
320–350
$154 Vol.
19%
350+
$21,736 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 140–169 (32.5%) and 170–199 (34.0%) tornadoes for April, mirroring the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182 confirmed events while accounting for an active early-month pace driven by Storm Prediction Center-documented outbreaks on April 2 across the Midwest and April 13–14 in the Plains, yielding dozens of confirmed tornadoes amid high CAPE and wind shear favoring supercells. With roughly half the month elapsed and preliminary counts nearing historical mid-month norms, the narrow lead reflects model consensus for moderate ongoing risks—Enhanced to Moderate outlooks through late April—but uncertainty in discrete storm modes versus squall lines, jet stream positioning, and final survey confirmations (typically validating 65–70% of reports). Key updates from SPC Day 3–8 convective outlooks and NCEI monthly reports will sharpen resolution trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$38,439Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 140–169 (32.5%) and 170–199 (34.0%) tornadoes for April, mirroring the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182 confirmed events while accounting for an active early-month pace driven by Storm Prediction Center-documented outbreaks on April 2 across the Midwest and April 13–14 in the Plains, yielding dozens of confirmed tornadoes amid high CAPE and wind shear favoring supercells. With roughly half the month elapsed and preliminary counts nearing historical mid-month norms, the narrow lead reflects model consensus for moderate ongoing risks—Enhanced to Moderate outlooks through late April—but uncertainty in discrete storm modes versus squall lines, jet stream positioning, and final survey confirmations (typically validating 65–70% of reports). Key updates from SPC Day 3–8 convective outlooks and NCEI monthly reports will sharpen resolution trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$38,439Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 140–169 (32.5%) and 170–199 (34.0%) tornadoes for April, mirroring the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182 confirmed events while accounting for an active early-month pace driven by Storm Prediction Center-documented outbreaks on April 2 across the Midwest and April 13–14 in the Plains, yielding dozens of confirmed tornadoes amid high CAPE and wind shear favoring supercells. With roughly half the month elapsed and preliminary counts nearing historical mid-month norms, the narrow lead reflects model consensus for moderate ongoing risks—Enhanced to Moderate outlooks through late April—but uncertainty in discrete storm modes versus squall lines, jet stream positioning, and final survey confirmations (typically validating 65–70% of reports). Key updates from SPC Day 3–8 convective outlooks and NCEI monthly reports will sharpen resolution trajectories.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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