Illinois's strong Democratic lean and open-seat dynamics following incumbent Dick Durbin's retirement underpin the market's assessment of Juliana Stratton. As the sitting lieutenant governor, she secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with backing from Governor JB Pritzker and defeated higher-profile congressional challengers. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces the structural barrier of no GOP Senate victory in the state since 2010. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates Illinois's consistent partisan voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would narrow the gap. Late-campaign events such as national economic shifts, candidate health developments, or turnout surprises could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$25,262 Vol.
$25,262 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
96%
Don Tracy (R)
4%
$25,262 Vol.
$25,262 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
$12,850 Vol.
96%
Don Tracy (R)
$12,412 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's strong Democratic lean and open-seat dynamics following incumbent Dick Durbin's retirement underpin the market's assessment of Juliana Stratton. As the sitting lieutenant governor, she secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with backing from Governor JB Pritzker and defeated higher-profile congressional challengers. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces the structural barrier of no GOP Senate victory in the state since 2010. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates Illinois's consistent partisan voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would narrow the gap. Late-campaign events such as national economic shifts, candidate health developments, or turnout surprises could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$25,262Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's strong Democratic lean and open-seat dynamics following incumbent Dick Durbin's retirement underpin the market's assessment of Juliana Stratton. As the sitting lieutenant governor, she secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with backing from Governor JB Pritzker and defeated higher-profile congressional challengers. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces the structural barrier of no GOP Senate victory in the state since 2010. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates Illinois's consistent partisan voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would narrow the gap. Late-campaign events such as national economic shifts, candidate health developments, or turnout surprises could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$25,262Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's strong Democratic lean and open-seat dynamics following incumbent Dick Durbin's retirement underpin the market's assessment of Juliana Stratton. As the sitting lieutenant governor, she secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with backing from Governor JB Pritzker and defeated higher-profile congressional challengers. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces the structural barrier of no GOP Senate victory in the state since 2010. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates Illinois's consistent partisan voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would narrow the gap. Late-campaign events such as national economic shifts, candidate health developments, or turnout surprises could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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