Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 85 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barb Regnitz prevailed in a fragmented GOP contest. Indiana's 1st District carries a slight Democratic lean reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Mrvan's 53.4 percent win in 2024. A failed 2025 redistricting effort preserved the current boundaries. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 82.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the district's voting patterns, the incumbent's established fundraising and name recognition, and the early stage of the 2026 cycle where national generic ballot trends have shown modest Democratic advantages. The November general election remains months away, leaving room for shifts from campaign spending, turnout, or broader political developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIN-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
IN-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
82%
Parti républicain
20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$152 Vol.
82%
Parti républicain
$296 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 85 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barb Regnitz prevailed in a fragmented GOP contest. Indiana's 1st District carries a slight Democratic lean reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Mrvan's 53.4 percent win in 2024. A failed 2025 redistricting effort preserved the current boundaries. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 82.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the district's voting patterns, the incumbent's established fundraising and name recognition, and the early stage of the 2026 cycle where national generic ballot trends have shown modest Democratic advantages. The November general election remains months away, leaving room for shifts from campaign spending, turnout, or broader political developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
Volume
$448Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 85 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barb Regnitz prevailed in a fragmented GOP contest. Indiana's 1st District carries a slight Democratic lean reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Mrvan's 53.4 percent win in 2024. A failed 2025 redistricting effort preserved the current boundaries. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 82.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the district's voting patterns, the incumbent's established fundraising and name recognition, and the early stage of the 2026 cycle where national generic ballot trends have shown modest Democratic advantages. The November general election remains months away, leaving room for shifts from campaign spending, turnout, or broader political developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$448Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 85 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barb Regnitz prevailed in a fragmented GOP contest. Indiana's 1st District carries a slight Democratic lean reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Mrvan's 53.4 percent win in 2024. A failed 2025 redistricting effort preserved the current boundaries. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 82.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the district's voting patterns, the incumbent's established fundraising and name recognition, and the early stage of the 2026 cycle where national generic ballot trends have shown modest Democratic advantages. The November general election remains months away, leaving room for shifts from campaign spending, turnout, or broader political developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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