Traders assign a 95.5% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the program's significant setbacks from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, which damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan while leaving inspectors without verified access to near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles. Recent IAEA referrals to the UN Security Council and satellite-detected construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain underscore ongoing diplomatic friction and Iranian efforts to protect remaining capabilities, yet Tehran continues to affirm NPT commitments and peaceful intentions amid stalled verification talks. This consensus aligns with assessments that Iran lacks an immediate pathway to a tested device given infrastructure losses and international scrutiny. Shifts could arise from unresolved stockpile disputes, accelerated underground work, or sudden NPT withdrawal amid heightened tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
5% chance
$258,465 Vol.
$258,465 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
5% chance
$258,465 Vol.
$258,465 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.5% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the program's significant setbacks from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, which damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan while leaving inspectors without verified access to near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles. Recent IAEA referrals to the UN Security Council and satellite-detected construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain underscore ongoing diplomatic friction and Iranian efforts to protect remaining capabilities, yet Tehran continues to affirm NPT commitments and peaceful intentions amid stalled verification talks. This consensus aligns with assessments that Iran lacks an immediate pathway to a tested device given infrastructure losses and international scrutiny. Shifts could arise from unresolved stockpile disputes, accelerated underground work, or sudden NPT withdrawal amid heightened tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$258,465Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.5% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the program's significant setbacks from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, which damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan while leaving inspectors without verified access to near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles. Recent IAEA referrals to the UN Security Council and satellite-detected construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain underscore ongoing diplomatic friction and Iranian efforts to protect remaining capabilities, yet Tehran continues to affirm NPT commitments and peaceful intentions amid stalled verification talks. This consensus aligns with assessments that Iran lacks an immediate pathway to a tested device given infrastructure losses and international scrutiny. Shifts could arise from unresolved stockpile disputes, accelerated underground work, or sudden NPT withdrawal amid heightened tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$258,465Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the program's significant setbacks from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, which damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan while leaving inspectors without verified access to near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles. Recent IAEA referrals to the UN Security Council and satellite-detected construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain underscore ongoing diplomatic friction and Iranian efforts to protect remaining capabilities, yet Tehran continues to affirm NPT commitments and peaceful intentions amid stalled verification talks. This consensus aligns with assessments that Iran lacks an immediate pathway to a tested device given infrastructure losses and international scrutiny. Shifts could arise from unresolved stockpile disputes, accelerated underground work, or sudden NPT withdrawal amid heightened tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes