**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party maintains a commanding majority in South Korea’s National Assembly, creating a high structural barrier to any impeachment motion succeeding before the end of 2026.** Opposition parties remain fragmented and lack the seats needed to advance or pass such a measure, even amid a June 2026 petition that collected over 100,000 signatures. That effort stalled at the committee stage and drew little broader support. Lee’s approval ratings, while declining to the low-to-mid 40s in recent Realmeter polling amid debates over housing taxes, prosecutorial reforms, and economic pressures, have not triggered defections within his party or unified opposition momentum. The Democratic Party’s performance in the June 2026 local elections further reinforced its institutional position ahead of the 2028 cycle. Legal cases predating Lee’s June 2025 inauguration remain paused under presidential immunity rules, removing an immediate flashpoint. Traders price the “No” outcome at 88.9% because no combination of polling erosion, opposition coordination, or new scandals has emerged capable of overcoming the legislative arithmetic in the brief window remaining before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLee Jae-myung mis en accusation avant 2027 ?
Lee Jae-myung mis en accusation avant 2027 ?
Oui
11% chance
$21,566 Vol.
$21,566 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
11% chance
$21,566 Vol.
$21,566 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party maintains a commanding majority in South Korea’s National Assembly, creating a high structural barrier to any impeachment motion succeeding before the end of 2026.** Opposition parties remain fragmented and lack the seats needed to advance or pass such a measure, even amid a June 2026 petition that collected over 100,000 signatures. That effort stalled at the committee stage and drew little broader support.
Lee’s approval ratings, while declining to the low-to-mid 40s in recent Realmeter polling amid debates over housing taxes, prosecutorial reforms, and economic pressures, have not triggered defections within his party or unified opposition momentum. The Democratic Party’s performance in the June 2026 local elections further reinforced its institutional position ahead of the 2028 cycle.
Legal cases predating Lee’s June 2025 inauguration remain paused under presidential immunity rules, removing an immediate flashpoint. Traders price the “No” outcome at 88.9% because no combination of polling erosion, opposition coordination, or new scandals has emerged capable of overcoming the legislative arithmetic in the brief window remaining before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$21,566Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party maintains a commanding majority in South Korea’s National Assembly, creating a high structural barrier to any impeachment motion succeeding before the end of 2026.** Opposition parties remain fragmented and lack the seats needed to advance or pass such a measure, even amid a June 2026 petition that collected over 100,000 signatures. That effort stalled at the committee stage and drew little broader support.
Lee’s approval ratings, while declining to the low-to-mid 40s in recent Realmeter polling amid debates over housing taxes, prosecutorial reforms, and economic pressures, have not triggered defections within his party or unified opposition momentum. The Democratic Party’s performance in the June 2026 local elections further reinforced its institutional position ahead of the 2028 cycle.
Legal cases predating Lee’s June 2025 inauguration remain paused under presidential immunity rules, removing an immediate flashpoint. Traders price the “No” outcome at 88.9% because no combination of polling erosion, opposition coordination, or new scandals has emerged capable of overcoming the legislative arithmetic in the brief window remaining before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$21,566Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party maintains a commanding majority in South Korea’s National Assembly, creating a high structural barrier to any impeachment motion succeeding before the end of 2026.** Opposition parties remain fragmented and lack the seats needed to advance or pass such a measure, even amid a June 2026 petition that collected over 100,000 signatures. That effort stalled at the committee stage and drew little broader support. Lee’s approval ratings, while declining to the low-to-mid 40s in recent Realmeter polling amid debates over housing taxes, prosecutorial reforms, and economic pressures, have not triggered defections within his party or unified opposition momentum. The Democratic Party’s performance in the June 2026 local elections further reinforced its institutional position ahead of the 2028 cycle. Legal cases predating Lee’s June 2025 inauguration remain paused under presidential immunity rules, removing an immediate flashpoint. Traders price the “No” outcome at 88.9% because no combination of polling erosion, opposition coordination, or new scandals has emerged capable of overcoming the legislative arithmetic in the brief window remaining before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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