**Forecast models indicate a mild overnight minimum for Moscow on August 29, 2026, supporting the market's leading 43.5% implied probability on 13°C or higher.** Official guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and multiple numerical weather prediction runs project nighttime lows of roughly 9–14°C under variable cloud cover, light winds, and stable high pressure. This aligns with late-August climatology, where average minimum temperatures hover near 14°C. Key drivers include the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that could produce sharper drops. Recent days have featured gradually moderating temperatures after earlier variability, with daytime highs climbing toward 19–22°C and no incoming frontal systems expected to alter the pattern overnight. Model consensus shows limited spread, though localized variations in urban heat-island effects or patchy fog could nudge the exact low by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable atmospheric conditions heavily, pricing in only modest probabilities (around 25–26%) for single-degree outcomes near 7–12°C and even lower odds for sub-5°C readings. Updated model runs or morning observations on the 29th could refine the final minimum before resolution, but current data favor a continuation of seasonably mild conditions.