Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 65.8% implied probability, driven by a robust $14.4 million second Friday—a 63% drop from its record-shattering $39.3 million opening day and the highest second Friday ever for a musical biopic—signaling strong word-of-mouth among fans despite middling critical reception. Solid weekday holds, including an $11.1 million Tuesday (fourth-best April live-action performance), propelled the domestic cume to $144.2 million through Friday, while the film crossed $300 million worldwide, unseating "Elvis" as the No. 2 musical biopic all-time. Projections cluster around $50-60 million for the May 1-3 frame amid light competition, though Saturday and Sunday grosses will confirm the hold before Sunday night estimates lock in momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour« Michael » 2e box-office du week-end
« Michael » 2e box-office du week-end
>55 M 64.3%
50-55 millions 32%
45-50 millions 1.3%
<35m <1%
$62,852 Vol.
$62,852 Vol.
<35m
1%
35-40m
<1%
40-45M
<1%
45-50 millions
1%
50-55 millions
32%
>55 M
64%
>55 M 64.3%
50-55 millions 32%
45-50 millions 1.3%
<35m <1%
$62,852 Vol.
$62,852 Vol.
<35m
1%
35-40m
<1%
40-45M
<1%
45-50 millions
1%
50-55 millions
32%
>55 M
64%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $55 million in its second domestic weekend at 65.8% implied probability, driven by a robust $14.4 million second Friday—a 63% drop from its record-shattering $39.3 million opening day and the highest second Friday ever for a musical biopic—signaling strong word-of-mouth among fans despite middling critical reception. Solid weekday holds, including an $11.1 million Tuesday (fourth-best April live-action performance), propelled the domestic cume to $144.2 million through Friday, while the film crossed $300 million worldwide, unseating "Elvis" as the No. 2 musical biopic all-time. Projections cluster around $50-60 million for the May 1-3 frame amid light competition, though Saturday and Sunday grosses will confirm the hold before Sunday night estimates lock in momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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